Covid19

[lumpy]

My kid at Ohio State just received an email telling him that classes are online only for the rest of the semester and that he will get an email tomorrow, indicating what day/time he needs to return to school next week, to clean out his dorm room...he's on Spring Break this week.

I got the word yesterday about my Oberlin kid. I'll be driving out Sunday and driving back Monday with him and his girlfriend. That'll be my economic contribution: 3 tanks of gas round trip and a night at a Days Inn up by the Interstate.

[rwsaunders]

I got the word yesterday about my Oberlin kid. I'll be driving out Sunday and driving back Monday with him and his girlfriend. That'll be my economic contribution: 3 tanks of gas round trip and a night at a Days Inn up by the Interstate.

I made the Oberlin trip for four years and I wore some grooves in the Turnpike between Pittsburgh and exit 152...safe travels.

[Chik]

In my neck of the woods, a step in the right direction, methinks.
National Security Council decides on tough measures to tackle COVID-19 | VRT NWS: news

[holliscx]

I’m sure this is conspiracy theory splooge content but I was talking to a friend last night and he mentioned the possibility of a medical grade biological weapon leaking and causing something like this. That’s definitely not out of the realm of possibility and would be harrowing to face something that was designed to be hard to stop.

What are people in the US doing are they outside and out and about? I’m about to go for a ride but Barcelona is trucking along at about 1/3 its usual rhythm. Today is the first day of mandatory school closures and I went to the gym this morning. Not surprisingly it was virtually empty.

[thollandpe]

Test kits can be purchased from the CDC. It is a RT-PCR kit. With that said, not all labs are using the CDC kits because some have created their own based on the genetic sequence released by the CDC awhile ago. In addition, many commercial platforms are developing kits quickly to get out to hospital based labs. Again, all RT-PCR. Many labs have those kits in their hands now. Between the CDC kits, lab developed tests, and now the commercially available kits, there is quite a bit of availability. Many reference labs (Quest, Labcorp, ARUP) are now offering the test as well.

What is preventing people from being tested is that the DOH for many states (I’m in Pa) and CDC have guidelines for who should be tested. For starters, they need to be negative on a respiratory panel to rule out all the common seasonal pathogens. I’m not sure if a simple negative on a single rapid flu test would meet the requirements (I haven’t checked on that part). If you meet all the symptoms and are negative on a respiratory panel, the DOH or CDC will test for COVID19. If the CDC or DOH do the testing, the test is free to the patient. Hospitals can’t bill for that testing. Keep in mind the initial respiratory panel is not free. There are talks at the legislative level about this conundrum.

If your Dr. suspects you have COVID19, but you don’t have all the required CDC symptoms, he/she can still order the test to be performed at either a reference lab or at the hospital if they provide the testing. That will be charged to your insurance. I don’t know the cost since it varies from institution and insurance.

These things are changing hourly.

Your response seems to contradict what others are experiencing. In California the governor said Thursday that they had tested only 1800 people and had 8000 test kits but the kits were incomplete. "I continue to reinforce the tests are not complete, kits all do not include re-agents, chemicals, solutions that are components."

Also on Thursday, the governor of Massachusetts (a Republican and former healthcare CEO) said we could test 5000 people but "We need much more testing capability, and we need the federal government to help us get there." He was asking for the feds to authorize more labs to run the test, because only the state lab could at that point.

Dr. Anthony Fauci from the NIH said "The system is not really geared to what we need right now. That is a failing. It is a failing, let's admit it."

Sick People Across the U.S. Say They Are Being Denied the Coronavirus Test

Fake news?

[HorsCat]

I’m sure this is conspiracy theory splooge content but I was talking to a friend last night and he mentioned the possibility of a medical grade biological weapon leaking and causing something like this. That’s definitely not out of the realm of possibility and would be harrowing to face something that was designed to be hard to stop.

What are people in the US doing are they outside and out and about? I’m about to go for a ride but Barcelona is trucking along at about 1/3 its usual rhythm. Today is the first day of mandatory school closures and I went to the gym this morning. Not surprisingly it was virtually empty.

I'm wondering whether to go on tomorrow's regular group ride. Right now I'm leaning solo.

As for the splooge content, nothing anymore is outside the realm of possibility but inasmuch as the only person I have heard mentioning this is my brother in law, who is a hardcore Trumper and fervent believer in many, many conspiracy theories, I'm inclined to believe the other theory currently circulating (ie, non-human animal to human animal transmission). Still, my bro in law is a board certified MD who is always right about everything. Always. So there's that data point as well, and he is adamant that a weapons lab somewhere in Wuhan province is responsible for this.

[Mark Kelly]

If the choice is between a conspiracy and a fuck up, put your money on the fuck up.

[David Tollefson]

King, Pierce, and Snohomish county have closed all schools (public and private) as of next Tuesday through April 24. Many have chosen to close immediately. Sports programs are postponing everything. Pools are closed.

Not sure what my 6-year-old is going to be doing for the next 6 weeks, but I'm fine with keeping her away from the petri dish for a while.

[jclay]

Morning report from Italy.

Sorry to respond after having only skimmed your note, but I may not get back to it for a few hours.

1. My knee-jerk response to your last note is exactly what you've decided: better to stay where you have (mostly) enforceable physical separation from everyone else and adequate storage space. Moreover, I don't think the economic instability this pandemic unleashes will settle down for quite a while (measured in many months at a minimum). Thus, standing pat seems like a good choice all 'round.

2. You may know, but just in case: contrary to reports I was hearing only 3-4 days ago, it appears the now prevailing epedemological opinion is that Covid-19 carriers are most infectious BEFORE they manifest symptoms. Latest estimates are that the pre-symptom period accounts for 40-80% of their transmission capacity. I don't have a citation at hand, but based on what I saw yesterday, it shouldn't be hard to find, unless they've changed their mind again.

3. An interview yesterday with an ICU manager in Bergamo (city with the worst current rate of new infection in Lombardy) says he's intubated a surprising number of younger folks (typ. 30s-40s y.o. and without major health issues). It's not just us old codgers who are getting severe lung complications. Moreover, kids may be effective carriers even if they seldom (but not never) show symptoms.

4. Haven't heard this asserted in the last 4-5 days, but earlier it was widely stated that the primary tests for Covid-19 (nasal or throat swap) do NOT show positive for non-symptomatic infectees.

Bottom line: there is no way to know if someone is a carrier, even if they test negative. The ONLY current effective protection is rigid social distancing and paranoid levels of hand/face hygiene.

Unless a bunch of R governors go and mug Trump (or he winds up in an ICU on an artificial respirator, thanks to hobnobbing last weekend with Bolsonaro and his Covid-19 positive press aide), it's gonna look far worse in the US by mid-April than it is now in Italy.

Buon divertimento,
Bill

[j44ke]

That weapons grade contagion thing has been debunked long ago.

NYC is relatively quiet. However there are still jackhammers tearing up the street to repair our ancient city’s water and sewage lines. Lots of people going to work. One thing that is missing - Asian tourists. Completely different look to sidewalk traffic. Also not so many people on the subways. Everyone seems generally to be obeying the “best practices” advice.

However yesterday evening at the same time as the mayor’s declaration of a state of emergency for the city, someone started sending out mass messages to the effect that NYPD was going to shut down the city. Some were just “My friend said...” but others had the look of official communications. News outlets were quick to confirm the messages were fraudulent, but it created some panic at the grocery shops.

This morning I see cars stopping at neighboring buildings to pick up bags and family members to (I assume) go elsewhere outside the city. We are leaving this afternoon. I feel like we have a week or two before the situation calms down a bit. Meanwhile I’d like some fresh air and trees.

[nahtnoj]

I'm wondering whether to go on tomorrow's regular group ride. Right now I'm leaning solo.

As for the splooge content, nothing anymore is outside the realm of possibility but inasmuch as the only person I have heard mentioning this is my brother in law, who is a hardcore Trumper and fervent believer in many, many conspiracy theories, I'm inclined to believe the other theory currently circulating (ie, non-human animal to human animal transmission). Still, my bro in law is a board certified MD who is always right about everything. Always. So there's that data point as well, and he is adamant that a weapons lab somewhere in Wuhan province is responsible for this.

So how is this coloring his interactions with his patients? Is he providing them accurate information?

If I come across someone professionally who is a Trumper, my confidence in the quality of their judgment and the value of the services they provide plummets...

[Drew]

If the choice is between a conspiracy and a fuck up, put your money on the fuck up.

Words to live by...

[Bobonli]

Your response seems to contradict what others are experiencing. In California the governor said Thursday that they had tested only 1800 people and had 8000 test kits but the kits were incomplete. "I continue to reinforce the tests are not complete, kits all do not include re-agents, chemicals, solutions that are components."

Also on Thursday, the governor of Massachusetts (a Republican and former healthcare CEO) said we could test 5000 people but "We need much more testing capability, and we need the federal government to help us get there." He was asking for the feds to authorize more labs to run the test, because only the state lab could at that point.

Dr. Anthony Fauci from the NIH said "The system is not really geared to what we need right now. That is a failing. It is a failing, let's admit it."

Sick People Across the U.S. Say They Are Being Denied the Coronavirus Test

Fake news?

It's hard to separate facts/actual capabilities from marketing hype. My organization is bragging wherever it can that we can do automated testing, we're helping the government yada, yada. Behind the scenes, it seems like we can only complete 90 tests a day. They don't mention that in the media blasts.

My perception is that people in the NY 'burbs are starting to lose their (feces). A bunch of public school closings were announced yesterday. I first heard from my kids who texted me from school! And now everyone is looking for a mask! My sister in law called to see if I could sneak some out of the hospital.

Me: "Why do you need masks if schools are closed, you're not going to work...you should be staying indoors as a family?"
Them: "we just want to be safe"

PSA for the day: unless a medical professional told you to wear a mask, you don't need a mask. The OTC masks don't protect you from this stuff, and re-breathing your own CO2 and slop isn't healthy either. We need the masks in the hospitals and clinics!!! As of last night, my supplier was back ordered until 7/11.

And as for Fauci, who I generally admire, I think he's borderline hysterical at this point. How can you call it a failing (in public) when there was (a) no reason to think this would happen until it happened (b) we had relatively little time to ramp up production of valid and reliable test kits? I'm all for placing blame when blame is due, but it's not helpful at this point. We have what we have and we should be looking forward, not backward. You dont solve problems by looking in the rear view mirror.

[j44ke]

My wife smartly suggested that the slow procession of cars picking up luggage is most likely parents collecting college kids, and that seems to be the case. We have a couple buildings on our block with rental apartments often rented by university students. Or rented by their parents for university students. Not cheap rentals.

[Will Neide]

Your response seems to contradict what others are experiencing. In California the governor said Thursday that they had tested only 1800 people and had 8000 test kits but the kits were incomplete. "I continue to reinforce the tests are not complete, kits all do not include re-agents, chemicals, solutions that are components."

Also on Thursday, the governor of Massachusetts (a Republican and former healthcare CEO) said we could test 5000 people but "We need much more testing capability, and we need the federal government to help us get there." He was asking for the feds to authorize more labs to run the test, because only the state lab could at that point.

Dr. Anthony Fauci from the NIH said "The system is not really geared to what we need right now. That is a failing. It is a failing, let's admit it."

Sick People Across the U.S. Say They Are Being Denied the Coronavirus Test

Fake news?

It's not necessarily contradicting, but it's also dumbed down for media and general populace consumptions. And like I said, things are changing hourly. You are relying on a governor to relay a message about a complex process to a mass of people that can't even spell "reagent." The term "kit" is even simplified for ease of reporting. There is far more to it than that. We say kit because it's palatable to the general populace. The governor doesn't know what a kit is.

I can't directly speak for state labs (as in the state lab for each state) but they are somewhat limited in their ability to test in large volumes. They will ultimately rely on larger hospitals to help with the lifting.

There is a lot to be learned from this and it is by no means perfect, but I think "failing" is quite exaggerative.

Test or no test, continue to practice precautions recommended by the CDC.

[WFSTEKL]

I have arrived at the time of year when I normally ramp up my weekly mileage to prepare for some summer and fall events. You are likely enjoying the same mileage ascent. Now I'm not so sure about how prudent it is to stress the body at this time. I do enjoy the feeling of returning home, hollowed-out, and happy as I slurp a tall glass of V-8; however, maybe I will need those reserves to survive?

Also, when the dust settles, maybe we will return to a time when our sport wasn't a promotional exercise, when it will be enough to ride shoulder to shoulder with another individual through the countryside and chat about our children, or our preference for Macintosh versus Cortland, or how good it feels to taste the sweat that settles on our mouth. Some of the best moments are the banal ones.

[Will Neide]

You change the conversation from everyone wanting a test can get a test, to anyone needing to be tested, will be tested.

The current approach is a NEED based approach vs a WANT based approach. There is a triaging process so that the resources are used on those who need it most. You could test negative today, and then get it tomorrow. You can't test everybody every day.

Let's not forget that there are still plenty of respiratory pathogens demanding attention as well.

[Blue Jays]

I thought this was supposed to be the non-politics thread about COVID-19?

[monadnocky]

I stopped going to the gym two days ago after I watched a man walk into the cybex room, hit every piece of equipment (there's about twelve) in order, and then walk out.
Without cleaning anything.

No thanks. I'm done until further notice. It's dumbbells in the basement for a few months, I think.

[j44ke]

I thought this was supposed to be the non-politics thread about COVID-19?

This is fact finding. We have several people in our midst who have direct experience. Questions are being asked about this experiences versus what has been seen on the news.