Ukraine

[bcm119]

I haven't heard one peep from mainstream news organizations that addresses the general point of view that John Mearsheimer advanced in the Cambridge University virtual presentation I posted; he not some wingnut and his position isn't unique, just ignored by the powers that be. I've listened to a couple other more general foreign policy presentations he's given and for my money the electorate needs to be hearing this stuff if we're to avoid these sorts of catastrophes going forward. And this has zero to do with giving Putin a pass; as the instigator of violence on Ukraine I hope he pays the heaviest price possible (I'm thinking the Hague and a rope) but the US has got to take a long, honest look in the mirror or we're going lose this planet.

Here's the link again for convenience; it's well worth listening to:

John, the main stream media is covering a brutal war that is changing by the hour. Perhaps they can be allowed to hold off on pontificating about our supposed missteps in the decades leading up to it? Is this relevant to how we're going to get aid to Kyiv before people start starving to death?

And, in your desperation to blame this all on US foreign policy, you are parroting a very US-centric world view that disregards the free will of other countries. Surely your stance is quite the opposite, but then again, you end by implying it's up to the US to save the planet? The constant demands from the far left to "look ourselves in the mirror" doesn't have the atonement effect on the global stage you think it does. I'm not the only one who holds this opinion. See the article below, particularly this quoted passage:

"Leftists in particular may think, when criticizing NATO expansion, that they are correcting their own or fellow citizens’ biases as citizens of an imperial power that has often acted in bad faith. They may think they are adequately acknowledging this fraught legacy by focusing their critique on what they perceive to be Western expansionism. But they in fact perpetuate imperial wrongs when they continue to deny non-Western countries and their citizens agency in geopolitics. Paradoxically, the problem with American exceptionalism is that even those who challenge its foundational tenets and heap scorn on American militarism often end up recreating American exceptionalism by centering the United States in their analyses of international relations. It is, in Gregory Afinogenov’s words, a “form of provincialism that sees only the United States and its allies as primary actors.” Speaking about Eastern Europe and Eastern Europeans without listening to local voices or trying to understand the region’s complexity is a colonial projection."

The American Pundits Who Can’t Resist “Westsplaining” Ukraine

[jclay]

When asked if there was intelligent life in the Universe, he said he thought life was abundant, but it would eventually destroy itself.

We're doing it. Species extinction, unsustainable population growth, boundless resource consumption & environmental destruction and nuclear saber rattling which sooner or later will not end well be it via evil, miscalculation or fuckup. Hell, the cold temp reservoirs necessary to the operation of the heat engine we live on are warming and melting, and we keep buying larger vehicles, building larger houses, etc. It's not that we'll eventually destroy ourselves (and most higher order life), we're still at the party as the Titanic roars into the ice field.

There was the in-depth Q&A with him in the New Yorker, just to name one I've seen recently.

"You know guys, Putin might have also screwed the pooch on this one."

Glad to hear that alternate viewpoints are getting a modicum of exposure. Putin may well have screwed up but Ukraine is paying the cost and I think Mearsheimer makes a strong case that continued avoidance (allowing for slow, positive change in the relevant areas) was possible.

Is this relevant to how we're going to get aid to Kyiv before people start starving to death?

The constant demands from the far left to "look ourselves in the mirror" doesn't have the atonement effect on the global stage you think it does. But they in fact perpetuate imperial wrongs when they continue to deny non-Western countries and their citizens agency in geopolitics. [/URL]

It's relevant bc recognition of any problem is the first, necessary step to it's address. Though it may well be too late from Putin's perspective I just don't see a problem with with a ring to Putin and asking if he will cease and withdraw if NATO membership is taken off the table. Of course we won't do it for reasons similar to Putin's likely rejection but we'd give nothing meaningful up; we're still armed to the teeth; and responsibly unable to exercise our superior military power (which is neither news to, nor the ramifications lost on, any major power). If he doesn't agree then he loses even more in the court of international opinion, possibly including changes in his relationship with China.

I don't deny a country's agency but the major influencers are pretty obvious. We could have told Ukraine that we'd pressed our luck hard enough for the foreseeable future and that further NATO expansion, arms sales and so on would be dangerously destabilizing and not on offer. Refraining from aiding a governmental overthrow might have been a good idea, too.

We're not in a gunpowder limited world anymore and it's kinda like investing; it's the potential downsides of decisions, often ignored, that can do the most damage; and the potential downside in this age is nuclear destruction. If humanity doesn't start backing away from that then the only framework question is whether the proximate trigger to destruction of advanced life on this planet will be the controlled flight into ground of conventional environmental degradation or catastrophic nuclear exchange. And it ain't about utopia or lefty this/that; it's about survival of the planet and it's remaining species.

[Scott G.]

[snip]
I don't deny a country's agency but the major influencers are pretty obvious. We could have told Ukraine that we'd pressed our luck hard enough for the foreseeable future and that further NATO expansion, arms sales and so on would be dangerously destabilizing and not on offer. Refraining from aiding a governmental overthrow might have been a good idea, too.[snip]

Putin always did rate NATO and Western intelligence agencies much higher in effectiveness than the NATO member states did.
Here in the weeds, NATO is a small, hollow shell of what it once was, that Putin feared expansion seemed liked political theater.

[vertical_doug]

We're doing it. Species extinction, unsustainable population growth, boundless resource consumption & environmental destruction and nuclear saber rattling which sooner or later will not end well be it via evil, miscalculation or fuckup. Hell, the cold temp reservoirs necessary to the operation of the heat engine we live on are warming and melting, and we keep buying larger vehicles, building larger houses, etc. It's not that we'll eventually destroy ourselves (and most higher order life), we're still at the party as the Titanic roars into the ice field.



Glad to hear that alternate viewpoints are getting a modicum of exposure. Putin may well have screwed up but Ukraine is paying the cost and I think Mearsheimer makes a strong case that continued avoidance (allowing for slow, positive change in the relevant areas) was possible.



It's relevant bc recognition of any problem is the first, necessary step to it's address. Though it may well be too late from Putin's perspective I just don't see a problem with with a ring to Putin and asking if he will cease and withdraw if NATO membership is taken off the table. Of course we won't do it for reasons similar to Putin's likely rejection but we'd give nothing meaningful up; we're still armed to the teeth; and responsibly unable to exercise our superior military power (which is neither news to, nor the ramifications lost on, any major power). If he doesn't agree then he loses even more in the court of international opinion, possibly including changes in his relationship with China.

I don't deny a country's agency but the major influencers are pretty obvious. We could have told Ukraine that we'd pressed our luck hard enough for the foreseeable future and that further NATO expansion, arms sales and so on would be dangerously destabilizing and not on offer. Refraining from aiding a governmental overthrow might have been a good idea, too.

We're not in a gunpowder limited world anymore and it's kinda like investing; it's the potential downsides of decisions, often ignored, that can do the most damage; and the potential downside in this age is nuclear destruction. If humanity doesn't start backing away from that then the only framework question is whether the proximate trigger to destruction of advanced life on this planet will be the controlled flight into ground of conventional environmental degradation or catastrophic nuclear exchange. And it ain't about utopia or lefty this/that; it's about survival of the planet and it's remaining species.

Mearsheimer opinion is not uninformed, but it is shaped by a particular world view. He has gotten some things spectacularly wrong, (think EU did not revert back to its former pre-soviet warring states, more countries shouldn't have nukes). The line between deterrence/detente and appeasement is a fine one. It did not work with hitler pre-1940 and its possible this would not have worked with Putin.

I think Ian Bremmer has been more right about Russia in the Putin era and prefer to listen to him.

[bigbill]

The "think tanks" are helping out.

This is a good link. http://cdrsalamander.blogspot.com/20...wants-war.html

[jclay]

I don't see this as appeasement, at least in the sense of the Hitler benchmark; this is real politic amongst military peers either of whom can, right now, start a nuclear exchange that will destroy the planet. It also involves Russia's Monroe Doctrine-esque stance on Ukraine & Georgia; clearly we wouldn't put up with Russia or China doing in countries south of Texas what we have been doing on the western flank of Russia. We got lucky twice; shoulda pushed back from the table but we can't help ourselves. Stress any system hard enough and something's gonna give. We simply can't force the world to comport to our will, but we can cause it's destruction by trying.

The US bitches about Russia's annexation of Crimea; WTF did anyone think would happen if Ukraine became western aligned??? And we're relinquishing Guantanamo, a piece of dirt to which we have exactly zero legitimate claim (or need), when?

I don't agree with Mearsheimer's assertion that this is entirely on us; I think his language was too strong, hopefully just to make a point. Whatever the provocation, the one who throws the first punch started the fight and in a squabble between nuclear powers that becomes a very big deal. But we kept ignoring Putin's warnings and the warnings from the disfavored of our own peeps, kept pushing, kept encouraging Ukraine; it doesn't matter if Putin misread the room or his military. Ukraine is paying a terrible price and there is a robust case for having been able to avoid it in a fashion that allowed Ukraine to putter along MOL as it had been.

Of course Mearsheimer (and the other seasoned & well informed folks who warned against excessive overtures to Ukraine) might have been wrong but at this point we know that those who prevailed in US foreign policy, were (assuming they weren't hoping for this sort of confrontation, which may be assuming too much).

Well, I've got nothing new here; off to the shop to finish a frame.

[j44ke]

Someone evidently unplugged Chernobyl. Means nuclear fuel in storage at Chernobyl is no longer being properly cooled. Not optimal.

[vertical_doug]

Someone evidently unplugged Chernobyl. Means nuclear fuel in storage at Chernobyl is no longer being properly cooled. Not optimal.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cherno...uctural_design

I think this is false statement, because even if you unplugged it, the site is in no need of being cooled. The solid waste is inside the previous concrete tomb. The new containment site is just to allow the clean-up and dissassembly of the existing structures. There is no need to cool the nuclear waste anymore. I think the primary purpose is to monitor nuclear dust and radiation levels.

Maybe BigBill can chime in if I am wrong on this.

[bigbill]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cherno...uctural_design

I think this is false statement, because even if you unplugged it, the site is in no need of being cooled. The solid waste is inside the previous concrete tomb. The new containment site is just to allow the clean-up and dissassembly of the existing structures. There is no need to cool the nuclear waste anymore. I think the primary purpose is to monitor nuclear dust and radiation levels.

Maybe BigBill can chime in if I am wrong on this.

The media is trying to apply Fukushima to Chernobyl. Apples and oranges. The containment at Chernobyl is to keep the rain off the contaminated waste and allow for the remainder of the reactor to be disassembled and sealed up. Reactor cores have decay heat after their shutdown. This is from the decay of fission particles in the fuel matrix and the exothermal result peaks after shutdown then decays away over time. The used cores from US Navy ships are shipped to storage in metal casks on railcars with no source of external cooling. A core within a cask might sit on a railcar in a storage facility for a year or more before it ships to Idaho.

Chernobyl needs a containment building for the same reason US naval cores are put in a metal container, they are highly radioactive. Like terminal dose in less than an hour radiation levels. A new core that has never reached criticality could be used as a coffee table. A used core can emit thousands of REM an hour. About 5000 REM immediately incapacitates and will result in an awful death.

[j44ke]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cherno...uctural_design

I think this is false statement, because even if you unplugged it, the site is in no need of being cooled. The solid waste is inside the previous concrete tomb. The new containment site is just to allow the clean-up and dissassembly of the existing structures. There is no need to cool the nuclear waste anymore. I think the primary purpose is to monitor nuclear dust and radiation levels.

Maybe BigBill can chime in if I am wrong on this.

Report has been adjusted. And clarified by the IAEA. https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03...-nuclear-plant

When Chernobyl was first seized by the Russians, there was a rumor in Prague that the Russians had wired the whole place with explosives as a sort of giant dirty bomb. But then it was pointed out that the work required to do so would have taken longer than the Russians had been there.

[j44ke]

...

Well, I've got nothing new here; off to the shop to finish a frame.

...

[BBB]

We're doing it. Species extinction, unsustainable population growth, boundless resource consumption & environmental destruction and nuclear saber rattling which sooner or later will not end well be it via evil, miscalculation or fuckup. Hell, the cold temp reservoirs necessary to the operation of the heat engine we live on are warming and melting, and we keep buying larger vehicles, building larger houses, etc. It's not that we'll eventually destroy ourselves (and most higher order life), we're still at the party as the Titanic roars into the ice field.

Indeed. Part of the response to some of these things was Covid. It has killed millions. Had it been more infectious and deadly that sum could have been in the billions. Obviously Covid is not related to the Ukraine, but sometimes for the reasons you outline, us humans aren't so bright.

[jdanke]

We've been living in Gibson's 2014 book The Peripheral for years, now. Welcome to The Jackpot.

Spoiler Alert
https://www.newstatesman.com/uncateg...east-100-years

I loaned it to a neighbor in mid-2020 and he returned it unfinished. Too scary.

[alexstar]

We've been living in Gibson's 2014 book The Peripheral for years, now. Welcome to The Jackpot.

Spoiler Alert
https://www.newstatesman.com/uncateg...east-100-years

I loaned it to a neighbor in mid-2020 and he returned it unfinished. Too scary.

One of the last events I went to in 2019 was a William Gibson book event here in San Francisco. During the Q&A, every third question was "Are we in the jackpot?". Since then, I think we've been able to determine the answer for ourselves...

[Doug Fattic]

I've had no time to ponder how the past should have been different that could have changed the present situation in Ukraine. I know right now there is a small window of time to get people out of the Odessa area (as one example) to countries west. You know the Russians want that southern port city (3rd largest in Ukraine). Most likely they will close off any escape routes fairly soon. I've taken some of the money that has already been raised for bicycles and broadened the term so now "bicycles" also means "humanitarian aid". I've been able to send a decent amount of money from our Ukraine Bicycle account to a former translator's bank card so she can redistribute those funds 2 ways. The 1st is to buy petrol (gas or diesel) fuel and food for the trip west. It takes a lot longer now because of heavy traffic and the lines at the border are insanely long so more fuel is needed. One round trip to Moldova is the equivalent of a teacher's monthly salary. A trip to Poland (a much richer country than Moldova) takes the equivalent of 2 month's salary ($400). The 2nd is that people are running out of money because they haven't been paid because businesses haven't been earning money and stores are running out of food. Everyone is very worried.

My morning consists of teaching a frame painting class (painting old fillet brazed Schwinns that can be turned into Ukraine project money) and the afternoon doing what is necessary to send money as well as all the communication required for that process to be successful. Get busy guys. Do something. I have an advantage because I've been going to Ukraine for years to make and deliver bicycles but I'm sure if you work at it, you can do something to help too. I'm also more motivated because I see the destruction in the city where our little frame/bike assembly shop is located. The Russians are jammed up creating local havoc while stalled in their effort to get to Kyiv. In my imagination people can become motivated to do what they can too when they realize the destruction and not remain passive because it isn't happening to them.

[jimcav]

I've had no time to ponder how the past should have been different that could have changed the present situation in Ukraine. I know right now there is a small window of time to get people out of the Odessa area (as one example) to countries west. You know the Russians want that southern port city (3rd largest in Ukraine). Most likely they will close off any escape routes fairly soon. I've taken some of the money that has already been raised for bicycles and broadened the term so now "bicycles" also means "humanitarian aid". I've been able to send a decent amount of money from our Ukraine Bicycle account to a former translator's bank card so she can redistribute those funds 2 ways. The 1st is to buy petrol (gas or diesel) fuel and food for the trip west. It takes a lot longer now because of heavy traffic and the lines at the border are insanely long so more fuel is needed. One round trip to Moldova is the equivalent of a teacher's monthly salary. A trip to Poland (a much richer country than Moldova) takes the equivalent of 2 month's salary ($400). The 2nd is that people are running out of money because they haven't been paid because businesses haven't been earning money and stores are running out of food. Everyone is very worried.

My morning consists of teaching a frame painting class (painting old fillet brazed Schwinns that can be turned into Ukraine project money) and the afternoon doing what is necessary to send money as well as all the communication required for that process to be successful. Get busy guys. Do something. I have an advantage because I've been going to Ukraine for years to make and deliver bicycles but I'm sure if you work at it, you can do something to help too. I'm also more motivated because I see the destruction in the city where our little frame/bike assembly shop is located. The Russians are jammed up creating local havoc while stalled in their effort to get to Kyiv. In my imagination people can become motivated to do what they can too when they realize the destruction and not remain passive because it isn't happening to them.

thanks Doug. I've donated to World Central Kitchen, UNICEF, and Sunflower of Peace. I will soon place some items for sale, probably across the hall to raise more. I hope everyone does what they can.

[bcm119]

Indeed. Part of the response to some of these things was Covid. It has killed millions. Had it been more infectious and deadly that sum could have been in the billions. Obviously Covid is not related to the Ukraine, but sometimes for the reasons you outline, us humans aren't so bright.

Yeah, I think new infectious diseases are a symptom (no pun intended) of ecological degradation. Look at Lyme disease - it has exploded in the most disturbed environments of the northeast US, particularly the residential/farm/wooded patchwork landscapes of the NY/New England suburbs. These are the environments where certain rodents that carry the disease have thrived in the absence of larger predators. The disease is far less prevalent in undisturbed, intact ecosystems. Another example of the indirect consequences of messing with the balance of ecology. Covid and Lyme could be the tip of the iceberg if we continue on the same path.