My light went out on Day 2 of Baystate CX atmo.
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Well, it's all about stress and response and adaption to the stress but I think that is basically what you are saying.
The fact that you have a deeper 'base' just means that you are better equipped to bounce back from a given absolute (say, 275W for an hour) stress since a) your deep base means you are not going as deep into the well as a weaker rider, and b) longs years of consistent training have probably given you a wide range of training effects that let you handle the stress better.
What people describe in this thread can essentially be characterized as 'overreaching' or 'overtraining' and it is a simplification to ascribe this to mitochondrial damage - in fact, there is limited evidence that this happens. 'Damage' from reactive oxygen species (ROS) is required for a full training effect. What's more, a trained muscle cell will assemble the machinery to better withstand a given amount of ROS stress.
So with that context, I would endorse what Robert says about legs, mood, and ability to concentrate. If your perceived exertion is inconsistent with your power output, one could consider this as a signal to dial it back a little.
Lastly, if you base your training zones on wattages obtained on a trainer, you handle heat and trainer dread a lot better than I can. For most, indoor trainer wattages underestimate what they are capable of on the road by a good margin.
Yeah, I'm not entirely sold on the mitochondrial damage thing either. After all, power lifters, high jumpers, etc who don't rely on aerobic capacity also go through peaks and plateaus in their fitness/performance. My guess is it's a combination of various things that eventually reach some limiting factor(s) which maxes out at some point, whether it's cortisol level, mitochondrial density, up regulation of some intracellular messenger/transporter, catecholamines, etc...
Here's some more old school stuff for you guys;
Toolbox: Training Plan Simplicity
I'll throw this one out there
Healthy Intelligent Training: The Proven Principles of Arthur Lydiard: Keith Livingstone: 9781841263113: Amazon.com: Books
apply the model to cycling and it works really well -- though you can handle a little more Zone 3-4 than a runner can, since cycling is non-weight bearing. Lydiard rules.
Doofus, I'll be in your neck of the woods for a 2 week training camp in February. Come get some rides in with us and we can talk training stuff!