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Re: Virus thread, the political one.
Colleges Are Getting Ready to Blame Their Students - The Atlantic
"With new coronavirus cases on the rise in most states, the notion that universities can reopen safely for in-person instruction in the fall is questionable, maybe even fantastical. According to a soon-to-be-published study led by Yale and Harvard researchers, outbreak control would require testing all students every two or three days—a tall order when the federal government is blocking the funding needed to do so. And universities that do intend to screen students for the virus are creating those plans without federal guidance: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, somewhat mysteriously, has failed to recommend testing for students without symptoms or exposure."
Is opening schools in the fall even possible?
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Re: Virus thread, the political one.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
beeatnik
Beeats, sort that list on deaths per 100,000 population and the US moves way, way up. Top 10.
You sorted it on the case-fatality ratio, so US is 52nd. That stat depends on the number of confirmed cases, so it is directly affected (or potentially skewed) by the amount of testing (or lack thereof). Think that explains the aversion to testing by the current administration? Like it's actually a strategy?
Stats are fun. Misuse of stats is propaganda.
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2 Attachment(s)
Re: Virus thread, the political one.
Chris Wallace was referring to the Case Fatality Rate. Point is both sides dont understand simple percentages. That's kind of scary.
Essentially it was confusion interpreting a category which Johns Hopkins created, "Mortality in the most affected countries." Spain, Italy and France are not included in this category because their cases are dropping.
Mortality in the most affected countries
For the twenty countries currently most affected by COVID-19 worldwide, the bars in the chart below show the number of deaths either per 100 confirmed cases (observed case-fatality ratio) or per 100,000 population (this represents a country’s general population, with both confirmed cases and healthy people). Countries at the top of this figure have the most deaths proportionally to their COVID-19 cases or population, not necessarily the most deaths overall.
Mortality Analyses - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center
Attachment 116181
Attachment 116182
In sports, they call this moving the goal posts.
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Re: Virus thread, the political one.
At the Coronavirus update, pervert, pedophile, rapist, criminal, fucktwat has this to say.
“I just wish her well,” Trump says of Ghislaine Maxwell, who was arrested earlier this month and charged with facilitating Jeffrey Epstein’s alleged sexual exploitation and abuse of minor girls.
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Re: Virus thread, the political one.
________
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Sbti
At the Coronavirus update, TRAITOR, pervert, pedophile, rapist, criminal, fucktwat has this to say.
“I just wish her well,” Trump says of Ghislaine Maxwell, who was arrested earlier this month and charged with facilitating Jeffrey Epstein’s alleged sexual exploitation and abuse of minor girls.
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Re: Virus thread, the political one.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Sbti
At the Coronavirus update, pervert, pedophile, rapist...“I just wish her well,” Trump says of Ghislaine Maxwell, who was arrested earlier this month and charged with facilitating...alleged sexual exploitation and abuse of minor girls.
Just so it's clear, there were many more exploiters of girls than just Epstein...Trump and British royalty included...that woman will probably be dead in jail shortly as she has too many stories to tell. Can you imagine? She probably has stories and money trails to back them up...
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Re: Virus thread, the political one.
“I just wish her well,” Trump says of Ghislaine Maxwell.
My Last Duchess
That’s my last Duchess painted on the wall,
Looking as if she were alive. I call
That piece a wonder, now; Fra Pandolf’s hands
Worked busily a day, and there she stands.
Will’t please you sit and look at her? I said
“Fra Pandolf” by design, for never read
Strangers like you that pictured countenance,
The depth and passion of its earnest glance,
But to myself they turned (since none puts by
The curtain I have drawn for you, but I)
And seemed as they would ask me, if they durst,
How such a glance came there; so, not the first
Are you to turn and ask thus. Sir, ’twas not
Her husband’s presence only, called that spot
Of joy into the Duchess’ cheek; perhaps
Fra Pandolf chanced to say, “Her mantle laps
Over my lady’s wrist too much,” or “Paint
Must never hope to reproduce the faint
Half-flush that dies along her throat.” Such stuff
Was courtesy, she thought, and cause enough
For calling up that spot of joy. She had
A heart—how shall I say?— too soon made glad,
Too easily impressed; she liked whate’er
She looked on, and her looks went everywhere.
Sir, ’twas all one! My favour at her breast,
The dropping of the daylight in the West,
The bough of cherries some officious fool
Broke in the orchard for her, the white mule
She rode with round the terrace—all and each
Would draw from her alike the approving speech,
Or blush, at least. She thanked men—good! but thanked
Somehow—I know not how—as if she ranked
My gift of a nine-hundred-years-old name
With anybody’s gift. Who’d stoop to blame
This sort of trifling? Even had you skill
In speech—which I have not—to make your will
Quite clear to such an one, and say, “Just this
Or that in you disgusts me; here you miss,
Or there exceed the mark”—and if she let
Herself be lessoned so, nor plainly set
Her wits to yours, forsooth, and made excuse—
E’en then would be some stooping; and I choose
Never to stoop. Oh, sir, she smiled, no doubt,
Whene’er I passed her; but who passed without
Much the same smile? This grew; I gave commands;
Then all smiles stopped together. There she stands
As if alive. Will’t please you rise? We’ll meet
The company below, then. I repeat,
The Count your master’s known munificence
Is ample warrant that no just pretense
Of mine for dowry will be disallowed;
Though his fair daughter’s self, as I avowed
At starting, is my object. Nay, we’ll go
Together down, sir. Notice Neptune, though,
Taming a sea-horse, thought a rarity,
Which Claus of Innsbruck cast in bronze for me!
Robert Browning
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1 Attachment(s)
Re: Virus thread, the political one.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
beeatnik
Chris Wallace was referring to the Case Fatality Rate. Point is both sides dont understand simple percentages. That's kind of scary.
Apologies if it was covered, but i only saw the part of the interview over this dispute.
It appears to me, the forest for the trees problem here is the fact the attention is on the past,
when the reality is the current projections have this virus running around well through November.
It's not magically going away with the warm weather, so it appears the efforts to this point have been inadequate.
so the only question is about what action comes next to fix this, or is the strategy really to let it burn?
-g
Attachment 116190
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Re: Virus thread, the political one.
^No argument about that but percentages are percentages. As Israel is learning, a 2nd wave or a surge or a spike can occur even when it seems the virus has been contained. So, Italy, France, Spain, Germany aren't out of the woods. Italy had a case fatality rate of 14.3% and 58.01 deaths per 100K, Spain 10.7% and 60.83, respectively. These numbers are/were frighteningly higher than the current numbers in the US. In fact, Canada isn't doing that great by these measures (7.9% and 24.02). What can be extrapolated? The CFR will continue to drop for the US (more testing, younger population infected) and deaths per 100k will rise slightly (population isn't infinite). The question is will the US get this under control and will there be a second wave in Italy, Spain, France, etc. I think a frightening and likely scenario is the slow burn one. Cases will continue to rise, CFR will continue to decrease (3.7%) and then suddenly (seemingly) cases nationwide will plummet as in the Northeast. Trump will take credit and you know where the story ends. The timing for his embrace of mask usage is sinisterly criminal.
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Re: Virus thread, the political one.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
beeatnik
Chris Wallace was referring to the Case Fatality Rate. Point is both sides dont understand simple percentages. That's kind of scary.
I don't understand your both sides comment. Wallace says the US's mortality rate is higher than Brazil and Russia. imPOTUS counters "I think we have one of the lowest mortality rates in the world."
Whether you rank on case-fatality ratio or deaths per 100,000 population is immaterial. The mortality rate in the US is higher than Russia and Brazil if you rank by the former, higher than Russia and lower than Brazil if you rank by the latter. Wallace was not wrong.
Source: Mortality Analyses - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center
It's inconceivable that it's one of the lowest in the world. This is not a both sides thing, it's that our president is lying.
For new deaths, we're number three (behind India and Mexico). For new cases per day, we're number two (behind India). Absolute numbers, not percentages. Source: Coronavirus Update (Live): 15,233,349 Cases and 622,565 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
We're in deep number two, certainly. And as Grant says, it's not just about where these numbers are, it's about where they're headed. And how fast.
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1 Attachment(s)
Re: Virus thread, the political one.
They weren't arguing about relative position. Wallace said the US is no 7 for CFR.
"Most affected countries currently"
Attachment 116191
We may have been 7 when Fox was doing its pre-production research.
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Re: Virus thread, the political one.
Whatever percentage it is 140K is a lot of people dead,
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Re: Virus thread, the political one.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
beeatnik
They weren't arguing about relative position. Wallace said the US is no 7 for CFR.
"Most affected countries currently"
Attachment 116191
We may have been 7 when Fox was doing its pre-production research.
Didn't Wallace say we were 7th for mortality rate, which not the same as case fatality rate? It's hard to keep up with the numbers shifting by the day, but the transcript you posted says mortality rate. Maybe he corrected himself later. I didn't watch the full video.
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Re: Virus thread, the political one.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Matthew Strongin
Didn't Wallace say we were 7th for mortality rate, which not the same as case fatality rate? It's hard to keep up with the numbers shifting by the day, but the transcript you posted says mortality rate. Maybe he corrected himself later. I didn't watch the full video.
Just looking at deaths / 1MM of population is simplest (death per capita which normalizes in the simplest form). India is the real head scratcher in all metric. Government randomly tested a bunch of people in Delhi and they believe 20% of the population has anti-bodies, yet total deaths are so low. So either they just are ignoring the deaths of the poor and saying other on official forms, or if you survive a world of dysentery and other wonderful sicknesses, your immune system is maybe fairly robust.
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Re: Virus thread, the political one.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
vertical_doug
Just looking at deaths / 1MM of population is simplest (death per capita which normalizes in the simplest form). India is the real head scratcher in all metric. Government randomly tested a bunch of people in Delhi and they believe 20% of the population has anti-bodies, yet total deaths are so low. So either they just are ignoring the deaths of the poor and saying other on official forms, or if you survive a world of dysentery and other wonderful sicknesses, your immune system is maybe fairly robust.
I wonder what role obesity/BMI plays in the death rates? I know it's a predictor of mortality, but the India numbers are stunning.
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Re: Virus thread, the political one.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
beeatnik
^No argument about that but percentages are percentages.
Not really, none of it matters.
This is Trump's jedi mind trick; someone quotes any statistic, or he quotes one, and the dispute ensues.
All the oxygen in the room is used up until time ends, and no real questions get asked, let alone answered.
That's how Trump is never held accountable. Trump walks away victorious. He's like the temp office
worker who just needs to make it to 5pm without accomplishing anything, but gets to go home at
the end of the day, mission accomplished.
-g
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Re: Virus thread, the political one.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
GrantM
All the oxygen in the room is used up until time ends, and no real questions get asked, let along answered.
Like playing chess with a pigeon.
The pigeon knocks all the pieces over.
And shits all over the board.
Then struts around as if it won.
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Re: Virus thread, the political one.
He can't escape approximately 145,000 dead and counting though.
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Re: Virus thread, the political one.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
vertical_doug
Just looking at deaths / 1MM of population is simplest (death per capita which normalizes in the simplest form). India is the real head scratcher in all metric. Government randomly tested a bunch of people in Delhi and they believe 20% of the population has anti-bodies, yet total deaths are so low. So either they just are ignoring the deaths of the poor and saying other on official forms, or if you survive a world of dysentery and other wonderful sicknesses, your immune system is maybe fairly robust.
And don't forget Mexico. A positivity rate of 42% and only 6552 tests/1M pop. Deaths/1M still lower than the US (313 v 441). In Mexico, there may be rampant corruption and criminality in business and government but one thing Mexico does well is count the dead.
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Re: Virus thread, the political one.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
BBB
He can't escape approximately 145,000 dead and counting though.
A quick tour of Fox, Red State, and the National Review this afternoon yielded zero mention of the number dead, or that millions of Americans are about to lose their supplemental unemployment unless Congress acts, which would create social and financial upheaval well beyond what we saw during the Great Recession. Apparently formulating policy for spending a trillion+ and rescuing the country from ruin is now a one day story. The escape is in process.