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Thread: 2015 TdF - Results/Spoilers Allowed

  1. #301
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    Default Re: 2015 TdF - Results/Spoilers Allowed

    Quote Originally Posted by DOOFUS View Post
    teejay is the j-f bernard/alex zulle/beloki of this generation

    steady rider, doesn't have the capacity to attack, as long as he's healthy and had a good build up he's almost a lock for top 5, in a good year podium

    he's going to make a lot of money before 30, has a great chance to win some week-long races, maybe the vuelta, but he's never going to win the tour
    Which is perhaps why Richie Porte is "expected" to join BMC next season, but it may mean that TJVG is somewhere else (though I haven't looked at contracts and Porte isn't "actually" at BMC because "actually" ain't allowed yet.)
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    Default Re: 2015 TdF - Results/Spoilers Allowed

    So long as the ASO insists on having the first mountain stage with a long and (generally) flattish course with one climb at the end, then we will see results like this. Rather than dosing their effort over three climbs, all matches are burnt in the final hour of the race and the result is a handful of riders maintaining an exaggerated tempo followed by an all or nothing attack by their team leader. It worked for US Postal and it worked/works for Sky. It also makes for boring racing. The ASO probably pockets a fee from whoever is vying for the stage finish, but it comes at the expense of killing their race. While you can trot out the 'there's still a long way to go' line, experience would suggest that Sky will ride defensively for the next week and a half with Froome more than capable of matching the inevitable attacks that will come. Short of sailing of the decent of the Allos - and no one wants to see that - Froome has the race in the bag.

    What is needed is a bit more imagination (imho). A entrée into the mountains with say two climbs that provide the opportunity for a decent break and leaves the teams of the favourites controlling the break and watching each other. The result is usually a nil all draw, but allows a GC outsider to claw back some time lost in the circus of the first week and builds some tension coming into the second mountain stage. The second mountain stage is the more difficult of the two with say three climbs, but over a shortish (120-130km) distance. Easy to do in the Pyrenees where the distances between climbs are not great. The shorter distance encourages aggressive racing and having more than one difficult climb on the agenda means a US Postal/Sky type outfit cannot simply sit back and wait for the final climb to blow everyone off via an over the top tempo. Sure the cream will rise to the top, but at least the organisation can make it a harder process and not quite so predictable.
     

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    Default Re: 2015 TdF - Results/Spoilers Allowed

    Quote Originally Posted by BBB View Post
    So long as the ASO insists on having the first mountain stage with a long and (generally) flattish course with one climb at the end, then we will see results like this. Rather than dosing their effort over three climbs, all matches are burnt in the final hour of the race and the result is a handful of riders maintaining an exaggerated tempo followed by an all or nothing attack by their team leader. It worked for US Postal and it worked/works for Sky. It also makes for boring racing. The ASO probably pockets a fee from whoever is vying for the stage finish, but it comes at the expense of killing their race. While you can trot out the 'there's still a long way to go' line, experience would suggest that Sky will ride defensively for the next week and a half with Froome more than capable of matching the inevitable attacks that will come. Short of sailing of the decent of the Allos - and no one wants to see that - Froome has the race in the bag.

    What is needed is a bit more imagination (imho). A entrée into the mountains with say two climbs that provide the opportunity for a decent break and leaves the teams of the favourites controlling the break and watching each other. The result is usually a nil all draw, but allows a GC outsider to claw back some time lost in the circus of the first week and builds some tension coming into the second mountain stage. The second mountain stage is the more difficult of the two with say three climbs, but over a shortish (120-130km) distance. Easy to do in the Pyrenees where the distances between climbs are not great. The shorter distance encourages aggressive racing and having more than one difficult climb on the agenda means a US Postal/Sky type outfit cannot simply sit back and wait for the final climb to blow everyone off via an over the top tempo. Sure the cream will rise to the top, but at least the organisation can make it a harder process and not quite so predictable.
    When I mention that there's still a long way to go, I'm not implying that Froome might lose but the next 6 are within about 90 seconds of each other and if something were to happen to Froome it's an open race again. As of this moment he's clearly in charge. As to the course, it's the same for all riders.

    It seems to be Froome's to lose but you never know what can happen. It's mentioned over and over again that the race isn't over until you cross the line in Paris. Contador was under pressure on the second last day of the Giro.
     

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    Default Re: 2015 TdF - Results/Spoilers Allowed

    Quote Originally Posted by j44ke View Post
    Which is perhaps why Richie Porte is "expected" to join BMC next season, but it may mean that TJVG is somewhere else (though I haven't looked at contracts and Porte isn't "actually" at BMC because "actually" ain't allowed yet.)
    I like Richie, but he's got a lot of GT competition.

    -g
    EPOst hoc ergo propter hoc

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    Default Re: 2015 TdF - Results/Spoilers Allowed

    Quote Originally Posted by Saab2000 View Post
    When I mention that there's still a long way to go, I'm not implying that Froome might lose but the next 6 are within about 90 seconds of each other and if something were to happen to Froome it's an open race again. As of this moment he's clearly in charge. As to the course, it's the same for all riders.

    It seems to be Froome's to lose but you never know what can happen. It's mentioned over and over again that the race isn't over until you cross the line in Paris. Contador was under pressure on the second last day of the Giro.
    While this true, Contador was managing his lead in the Giro and kept his rivals at bay through clever riding and without the services of an extremely strong team (and in opposition to an extremely strong team). The route in the Giro was and is generally somewhat different to the TdF and this in itself probably makes it harder to manage a race lead. The final week in the TdF looks extremely tough, but it is a bit more binary in nature when compared to the Giro (no Mortirolo, no steep gravel climb etc etc) and Sky are well drilled at defensive riding.
     

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    Default Re: 2015 TdF - Results/Spoilers Allowed

    We'll see what AC can bring to the remainder of the race. My impression is that it's impossible to recover
    from the efforts required to win the Giro and then peak again for the Tour. It's seems like the riders
    are much closer to the edge of their abilities than ever. They appear to get ground down during the race,
    unlike the open doping era, and I say that and realize it's the cool thing to claim nothing has changed,
    but it looks to me as if it has. (At least a few appear to have missed their rest day blood bag)

    The talk of the first week was how the favourites came through unscathed, but it also looks like they burned
    matches to be constantly on guard at the front. There is a long way to go, as we've seen so many times,
    any thing can happen. When I reflect back to some 80s Tours, one thing I'm reminded of is the days
    riders bounced around, it seemed like eventually everyone had at least one bad day.

    -g
    EPOst hoc ergo propter hoc

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    Default Re: 2015 TdF - Results/Spoilers Allowed

    Quote Originally Posted by BBB View Post
    and Sky are well defensive at drilled riding.
    Fixed it.
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    Default Re: 2015 TdF - Results/Spoilers Allowed

     

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    Default Re: 2015 TdF - Results/Spoilers Allowed

    Quote Originally Posted by GrantM View Post
    We'll see what AC can bring to the remainder of the race. My impression is that it's impossible to recover
    from the efforts required to win the Giro and then peak again for the Tour. It's seems like the riders
    are much closer to the edge of their abilities than ever. They appear to get ground down during the race,
    unlike the open doping era, and I say that and realize it's the cool thing to claim nothing has changed,
    but it looks to me as if it has. (At least a few appear to have missed their rest day blood bag)

    The talk of the first week was how the favourites came through unscathed, but it also looks like they burned
    matches to be constantly on guard at the front. There is a long way to go, as we've seen so many times,
    any thing can happen. When I reflect back to some 80s Tours, one thing I'm reminded of is the days
    riders bounced around, it seemed like eventually everyone had at least one bad day.

    -g
    There is definitely a difference. Speed is lower. The current doping / bio passport rules and process do not prevent doping but they do a good job at mitigating the impact of doping.

    What kills a bit of the show is how many riders now regulate their effort on telemetry. There are much less riders attacking then blowing up. I was actually suprised to see Froome struggling that much in the last 400m of the stage yesterday. His pedaling cadence suddently dropped and it clearly showed he was no more in control. It looks like he had mistimed his effort or was expecting a flat part in the end and had just burnt all his matches a bit too fast. So there is still room for suprises I guess.
    --
    T h o m a s

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    Default Re: 2015 TdF - Results/Spoilers Allowed

    Sean Kelly today on Eurosport (after being "trolled" by co-presenter Carlton Kirby on French press "rudeness" to Chris Froome re: doping) said he thought that doubt about results these days was comprehensive. It wasn't limited to cycling in athletics or even to athletics at all. Any results that appear to be too good to be true, from watts to seconds to dollars, are suspect after the era of uphill braking, the long ball and financial invention for profit.

    Smart guy that Kelly.
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    Default Re: 2015 TdF - Results/Spoilers Allowed

    On the other hand I hate seeing all these newspaper asking Froome to explain or justify his result ; It is a race ; someone has to win. I'm not naive but I find this extremely impolite.

    If justifications need to be done, we shouldn't ask one guy to release all the data. I'd rather see these journalists ask Bryan Cookson and/or the ASO so they put in the UCI rulebook that all powermeter/cardio/cadence data from any rider has to be monitored and stored on write-once only device provided by an independent entity and made public.
    --
    T h o m a s

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    Quote Originally Posted by sk_tle View Post
    If justifications need to be done, we shouldn't ask one guy to release all the data. I'd rather see these journalists ask Bryan Cookson and/or the ASO so they put in the UCI rulebook that all powermeter/cardio/cadence data from any rider has to be monitored and stored on write-once only device provided by an independent entity and made public.
    Indeed. It would be interesting as part of the coverage for telemetry to be available for every rider. Want to put the values of Contador, Froome and Nibali on the screen for the final climb? Go for it.
     

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    Default Re: 2015 TdF - Results/Spoilers Allowed

    Quote Originally Posted by BBB View Post
    Indeed. It would be interesting as part of the coverage for telemetry to be available for every rider. Want to put the values of Contador, Froome and Nibali on the screen for the final climb? Go for it.
    Day 1 in the mountains: One more pixel, context & mistrust | The Science of Sport

    These guys have been doing this for several years now. It's an extrapolation but it seems fairly accurate for a guy like me

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    Default Re: 2015 TdF - Results/Spoilers Allowed

    The biggest issue is variation in weight can make a difference and the public data is not reliable.
    --
    T h o m a s

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    Default Re: 2015 TdF - Results/Spoilers Allowed

    What's with all the abandons today?
    DT

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    Default Re: 2015 TdF - Results/Spoilers Allowed

    did i just read that Costa abandoned?
    -Dustin

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    Default Re: 2015 TdF - Results/Spoilers Allowed

    Quote Originally Posted by David Tollefson View Post
    What's with all the abandons today?
    It's an absurdly hard and absurdly hot (34C!!) day.

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    Default Re: 2015 TdF - Results/Spoilers Allowed

    Yeah same temp here and I'm working at home in a swim short. I considered going for a ride but will wait probably tomorrow at dawn.
    --
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    Default Re: 2015 TdF - Results/Spoilers Allowed

    There are evidently some riders who are getting seriously affected by the heat, getting the wobblies, high core temp, etc. And there doesn't seem to be any relief from altitude. If anything, according to Eurosport, the temps are higher due to sun intensity - from above and reflected off the tarmac.

    Listening to the reports of Nibali's frustration with Astana and vice versa, it seems like transparency could definitely go both ways. How well did Nibali actually train? Did he start the Tour in top shape or was he surprised by the early climb & heat after intending to ride himself into shape and enter what he figured would be the real showdown in the third week, fit and ready?

    Sky's training regimen is total control bordering on OCD of every rider in the squad. I can guess that one of the reasons Wiggins was jettisoned when it seemed he still had some juice left is that he wasn't 100% committed. That kind of training is not the rule in the peloton, and Nibali has made a big deal about gut-level racing being more important than being able to read a cycling computer on the handlebars without needing bifocals. But it also seems that if you haven't given yourself over to Sky's 100% OCD training regimen, you are faced with deciding whether what you are feeling is your gut or the waning of your will. Or in Nibali's case perhaps, lack of energy or petulance. Froome watches the numbers and goes when everything matches up with the plan. There may be less romance with the latter but there also may be less nagging doubt.

    Plus Nibali didn't race against Sky and Saxo last year. Both Froome and Contador were out with injuries.
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    Default Re: 2015 TdF - Results/Spoilers Allowed

    Majka! Way to hang it out there!
    DT

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    Some are born to move the world to live their fantasies...

    "the fun outweighs the suck, and the suck hasn't killed me yet." -- chasea

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