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View Poll Results: Will you take the vaccine as soon as it is made available to your category?

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    165 85.49%
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    28 14.51%
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Thread: The Vaccine Thread

  1. #1621
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    Default Re: The Vaccine Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by beeatnik View Post
    What do you mean by incomplete data? And, obviously, it's a "snapshot" at an important moment in time in a high uptake country that isn't actively vaccinating children or providing boosters for the general population.
    It is clear in the paper that the authors are aware that the data is rife with misinterpretation. They seem to make mention, and allude, to it a number of times. My interpretation of your post is that the spread of COVID19 is largely being driven by vaccinated individuals in the age range of 40-49. Am I correct?

    Interpretation of data

    These data should be considered in the context of vaccination status of the population groups
    shown in the rest of this report. The vaccination status of cases, inpatients and deaths is not the
    most appropriate method to assess vaccine effectiveness and there is a high risk of
    misinterpretation. Vaccine effectiveness has been formally estimated from a number of different
    sources and is described earlier in this report.
    Will Neide (pronounced Nighty, like the thing worn to bed)

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  2. #1622
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    Default Re: The Vaccine Thread

    These data should be considered in the context of vaccination status of the population groups shown in the rest of this report. The vaccination status of cases, inpatients and deaths is not the most appropriate method to assess vaccine effectiveness and there is a high risk of misinterpretation. Vaccine effectiveness has been formally estimated from a number of different sources and is described earlier in this report.

    In the context of very high vaccine coverage in the population, even with a highly effective vaccine, it is expected that a large proportion of cases, hospitalisations and deaths would occur in vaccinated individuals, simply because a larger proportion of the population are vaccinated than unvaccinated and no vaccine is 100% effective. This is especially true because vaccination has been prioritised in individuals who are more susceptible or more at risk of severe disease. Individuals in risk groups may also be more at risk of hospitalisation or death due to nonCOVID-19 causes, and thus may be hospitalised or die with COVID-19 rather than because of COVID-19.
    They acknowledge that the data is at high risk of misinterpretation, particularly because of the very different distribution of vaccinated and unvaccinated in the different cohorts.
    "I guess you're some weird relic of an obsolete age." - davids
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  3. #1623
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    Default Re: The Vaccine Thread

    I believe the authors know that they have data which doesn't align with data from other countries or regions. It appears that they are more concerned about how the data will be used to calculate waning vaccine efficacy. They offer some studies from the alpha period to counter those, um, interpretations.

    Page 14:
    40-49 unvaccinated: hospitalizations per 100k, 23
    40-49 vaccinated: hospitalizations per 100k, 5.1
    80 + unvaccinated: hospitalizations per 100k, 99.1
    80 + vaccinated: hospitalizations per 100k, 49.1

    The above would suggest that serious disease protection is waning for the oldest individuals. That's not a secret and it's the reason we're giving boosters. But will the numbers wane for those under 50 and how will that waning protection impact outcomes. I'd guess that hospitalization rates for under 50 will stay low even with waning protection.
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  4. #1624
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    Default Re: The Vaccine Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Matthew Strongin View Post
    They acknowledge that the data is at high risk of misinterpretation, particularly because of the very different distribution of vaccinated and unvaccinated in the different cohorts.
    Funny how the caveats only go one way...
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  5. #1625
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    Default Re: The Vaccine Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by beeatnik View Post
    The above would suggest that serious disease protection is waning for the oldest individuals. That's not a secret and it's the reason we're giving boosters. But will the numbers wane for those under 50 and how will that waning protection impact outcomes. I'd guess that hospitalization rates for under 50 will stay low even with waning protection.
    To my knowledge your claim is not supported by peer reviewed publications. This is merely unscientific speculation on your part.
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  6. #1626
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    Default Re: The Vaccine Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by beeatnik View Post
    Funny how the caveats only go one way...
    Not sure what you're getting at. I quoted the caveats from the study you linked. The go whichever way the authors felt was necessary.
    "I guess you're some weird relic of an obsolete age." - davids
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  7. #1627
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    Default Re: The Vaccine Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by swt View Post
    To my knowledge your claim is not supported by peer reviewed publications. This is merely unscientific speculation on your part.
    Of course it's speculation, do I need to create a study design or submit an article for peer review to comment on the data in a bicycle forum? Will Neide wanted to straw man me, so I answered his question in good faith. As for the peer reviewed studies you reference, do they look at cases and hospitalizations in August and September, 2021?


    Effectiveness against transmission
    As described above, several studies have provided evidence that vaccines are effective at preventing infection. Uninfected individuals cannot transmit; therefore, the vaccines are also effective at preventing transmission. There may be additional benefit, beyond that due to prevention of infection, if some of those individuals who become infected despite vaccination are also at a reduced risk of transmitting (for example, because of reduced duration or level of viral shedding). A household transmission study in England found that household contacts of cases vaccinated with a single dose had approximately 35 to 50% reduced risk of becoming a confirmed case of COVID-19. This study used routine testing data so would only include household contacts that developed symptoms and went on to request a test via pillar 2. It cannot exclude asymptomatic secondary cases or mildly symptomatic cases who chose not to request a COVID-19 test (16). Data from Scotland has also shown that household contacts of vaccinated healthcare workers are at reduced risk of becoming a case, which is in line with the studies on infection (17). Both of these studies relate to a period when the Alpha variant dominated.
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  8. #1628
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    Default Re: The Vaccine Thread

    Can we lock this thread yet? Please?
    steve cortez

    FNG
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  9. #1629
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    Default Re: The Vaccine Thread

    We should lock it and come back to it in 2023.
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  10. #1630
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    Default Re: The Vaccine Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by beeatnik View Post
    Of course it's speculation, do I need to create a study design or submit an article for peer review to comment on the data in a bicycle forum?
    It's critical that there is no doubt in anyone's mind that the vaccines are safe, effective at preventing infection and serious illness, and provide long-lasting immunity.

    The scientific consensus is that this is so. You have repeatedly tried to cast doubt on each of these points.

    Based on your latest riff on some data you found, I am imagining overhearing someone say: "I heard the vaccine doesn't even really protect you for very long anyway -- so I'm not getting it."

    Do you understand why you shouldn't be doing what you are doing? Do you understand why it's dangerous?

    If you truly believe that you have a novel understanding of the virus and the pandemic, I suggest you submit your theories and supporting data to a forum that is able to properly evaluate them, maybe your local public health office?
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  11. #1631
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    Default Re: The Vaccine Thread

    ^Wait, what's your understanding of boosters?
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  12. #1632
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    Default Re: The Vaccine Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by beeatnik View Post
    ^Wait, what's your understanding of boosters?
    This is my understanding and interpretation of the sources that I follow:
    If you had a robust immune response to the first two shots, a booster will likely give you marginal incremental protection, insofar as you are likely still protected from the first two.
    If you did not have a robust immune response to the first two shots, then the booster will likely give you increased protection, though, due to the fact that you didn't have a robust response to the first two, it is likely that you will not have a robust response to the booster. Nonetheless you should have the booster.
    What kind of response you had is testable, but unless you are immunocompromised, it is unlikely that you will have a measurable answer to that question at the time when you are faced with the decision to take the booster.
    For my part, I will likely get the booster when it is available in my area for those who received Moderna. But this will be out of an abundance of caution rather than because I think there is a scientific reason.
    I am in favor of as many people getting as much vaccine as possible.

    I think it's quite possible that for the foreseeable future we will be lining up to get boosters in the fall -- at least for as long as the pandemic is ongoing.
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  13. #1633
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    Default Re: The Vaccine Thread

    I struggle to understand the immunological distinction between natural immunity and vaccine-induced immunity as parsed by epidemiologists and public health authorities. If we expect wide variation in immune response at the individual level for the previously infected and vaccinated but population wide numbers show robust immunity in both the natural immune (low reinfection rates) and the vaccinated (high VE), then allowing the previously infected to provide evidence of immunity through testing (antibody or T cell) is analogous to identifying individuals who require boosters; one group proves they're immune the other proves they require additional protection.


    Quote Originally Posted by swt View Post
    This is my understanding and interpretation of the sources that I follow:
    If you had a robust immune response to the first two shots, a booster will likely give you marginal incremental protection, insofar as you are likely still protected from the first two.
    If you did not have a robust immune response to the first two shots, then the booster will likely give you increased protection, though, due to the fact that you didn't have a robust response to the first two, it is likely that you will not have a robust response to the booster. Nonetheless you should have the booster.
    What kind of response you had is testable, but unless you are immunocompromised, it is unlikely that you will have a measurable answer to that question at the time when you are faced with the decision to take the booster.
    For my part, I will likely get the booster when it is available in my area for those who received Moderna. But this will be out of an abundance of caution rather than because I think there is a scientific reason.
    I am in favor of as many people getting as much vaccine as possible.

    I think it's quite possible that for the foreseeable future we will be lining up to get boosters in the fall -- at least for as long as the pandemic is ongoing.
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  14. #1634
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    Default Re: The Vaccine Thread

    Next up…the Twindemic…and we’re not talking about Tyler Hamilton.

    https://www.nationalgeographic.com/s...-to-hit-the-us
    rw saunders
    hey, how lucky can one man get.
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  15. #1635
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    Default Re: The Vaccine Thread

    That is incorrect. vaccine efficiency does not relate to CASES (which is positive testing in this context). Vaccine efficiency is determined by the level of illness it is designed to prevent. All the COVID-19 vaccines were designed to prevent severe illness and death, not completely prevent transmission. The pathophysiology of an infectious respiratory virus makes it impossible to totally prevent transmission--there is lag in immune response from exposure and infection to the body beating the virus such that it allows for some level of subsequent transmission. The point of the vaccine is that is preps the immune system to respond fast, and forcefully, enough to prevent severe illness and death for most who receive it.

    IF we were still dealing with the original COVID-19 variant, the effect on transmission would be more pronounced, but it is still not the primary goal of the vaccine. The focus on case #s and positive tests is unfortunate. Also unfortunate was confusion about herd immunity, as it doesn't infer total immunity to having the disease, it means immunity to a severe outcome--ie the type of situation where a plant shuts down as the virus sweeps through the workforce, or communities' ambulances and hospital beds are overwhelmed by the significant illness caused by the severity of infection.
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  16. #1636
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    Default Re: The Vaccine Thread

    Jim, there are three measures of vaccine efficacy (VE) or vaccine effectiveness.
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  17. #1637
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    Default Re: The Vaccine Thread

    I donít see the point to try to apply a definition that doesnít apply to what the vaccine was designed to do, which is prevent significant illness and death. Vaccine Efficiency is how we measure vaccine results in real world conditions.

    The outcome of interest is the actual health outcome for individuals in terms of illness severity and the outcome, which in turn is important because of the burden on the various workforces and healthcare systems. Efficacy is based on lab/research settings, and is definitely not the true measure of the purpose of this vaccine, nor can I see how it is useful to discuss.

    Perhaps it is helpful to some to learn the nuances difference of vaccine efficacy vs efficiency.
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  18. #1638
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    Default Re: The Vaccine Thread

    Colin Powell had prostate cancer, Parkinson's, plus an incurable type of blood cancer called multiple myeloma. This is the problem that I have with statistics, and I know someone linked to an excellent The Economist article earlier in this thread re: excess deaths, but that's a reach to attribute Powell's death to covid. He was 84, immunocompromised, and could've succumbed to a Taco Bell fart. What's more, the media has used his obit to push the vaccine narrative which is flagrant opportunism.

    Are there other examples where, say, you have a cold and you're in a plane crash yet your death is labeled due to a common cold, just completely ignoring the elephant in the room, or is the cause of all deaths subjective? I'm not trolling or mocking Powell's death (I was weaned on Nachos BellGrande) but at some point we've got to revert to calling a spade a spade. Another example, this summer in Spain I read a headline that there were 4,000 covid deaths and the average age was 80. Apparently dying of old age doesn't exist anymore just like there was no flu, people didn't catch the common cold because of masks, etc. I believe the scope and severity of covid to the general population has been over exaggerated and irresponsibly reported from day one. I have friends who say they're going to wear a mask for the rest of their lives; I know people who still clean surfaces obsessively; others don't take public transportation and on and on.
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  19. #1639
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    Default Re: The Vaccine Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by holliscx View Post
    Another example, this summer in Spain I read a headline that there were 4,000 covid deaths and the average age was 80. Apparently dying of old age doesn't exist anymore just like there was no flu, people didn't catch the common cold because of masks, etc. I believe the scope and severity of covid to the general population has been over exaggerated and irresponsibly reported from day one. I have friends who say they're going to wear a mask for the rest of their lives; I know people who still clean surfaces obsessively; others don't take public transportation and on and on.
    Deaths would never be reported as caused by "old age" in any reporting. Elderly people who die of heart failure, stroke, flu, COVID...etc. died from those events; their age made them more susceptible to those insults, but it did not cause their death per se.

    As for your commentary on the severity of COVID to the general population - are you aware of the long-term costs of this pandemic? >30% of non-hospitalized COVID infections result in lasting symptoms at 6 months, and for hospitalized patients the symptoms of long-COVID are apparent in >60% according to some studies. Speaking purely about death is a hugely misleading way to discuss this pandemic. At 240+ million cases and counting, we're talking about 100+ million people with chronic hypotension, cognitive problems, cardiovascular issues... heck even Spain has nearly 5 million cases now. Aside from the 87,000+ people who have died there, that leaves millions with lasting symptoms that may prevent them from functioning properly in their work, their family and home life, and as a general participant in society. Compare this with something like influenza, which kills ~650k in a BAD year and has far fewer and less prevalent tangible lasting symptoms for survivors (even those with severe influenza), vs. the nearly 5 million dead from COVID in less than two years and many millions more with debilitating symptoms 6-9 months out...

    I'm not sure how that severity has been overstated.
    "Do you want ants? Because that's how you get ants."
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  20. #1640
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    Default Re: The Vaccine Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Octave View Post
    Deaths would never be reported as caused by "old age" in any reporting. Elderly people who die of heart failure, stroke, flu, COVID...etc. died from those events; their age made them more susceptible to those insults, but it did not cause their death per se.

    As for your commentary on the severity of COVID to the general population - are you aware of the long-term costs of this pandemic? >30% of non-hospitalized COVID infections result in lasting symptoms at 6 months, and for hospitalized patients the symptoms of long-COVID are apparent in >60% according to some studies. Speaking purely about death is a hugely misleading way to discuss this pandemic. At 240+ million cases and counting, we're talking about 100+ million people with chronic hypotension, cognitive problems, cardiovascular issues... heck even Spain has nearly 5 million cases now. Aside from the 87,000+ people who have died there, that leaves millions with lasting symptoms that may prevent them from functioning properly in their work, their family and home life, and as a general participant in society. Compare this with something like influenza, which kills ~650k in a BAD year and has far fewer and less prevalent tangible lasting symptoms for survivors (even those with severe influenza), vs. the nearly 5 million dead from COVID in less than two years and many millions more with debilitating symptoms 6-9 months out...

    I'm not sure how that severity has been overstated.
    Thank you. When people ask why I'm still taking a high level of precaution, it's this. I'd rather not be a test case for C19 survivorship (or worse). Of course that means I'm a test case for the effects of social isolation and a little light family estrangement... sigh, these times sure are fun.
    Dan in Oregon

    ---------------

    The wheel is round. The hill lasts as long as it lasts. That's a fact. Everything else is pure theory.
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