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Thread: Was There Just a Coup in the US?

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    Default Re: Was There Just a Coup in the US?

    Quote Originally Posted by j44ke View Post
    FiveThirtyEight never nixed Trump's chances of winning the election & never anointed Clinton as the presumptive winner
    Slight thread-drift: Unless you are simply acknowledging that FiveThirtyEight never suggested it was 100% to 0% in favor of Clinton, you may be misremembering: Through the Autumn months FiveThirtyEight was consistently showing an enormous numerical advantage to Clinton's chances, often in double digits.

    I only remember this because shortly after the election I whined something on Facebook about "why should I ever trust FiveThirtyEight again?" and a friend who knows way more about statistics than I do pointed out that FiveThirtyEight always represented the polling data accurately ...it was the polls that were wrong. (!)
     

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    Default Re: Was There Just a Coup in the US?

    Maybe a full shutdown would help the general population understand just how transparently essential government really is. This is the first step to only electing folks who can actually run one...
    Guy Washburn

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    Default Re: Was There Just a Coup in the US?

    Last shut-down (2013) workers who were forced to work overtime without pay (meaning they worked their normal hours without pay and then had to work overtime hours also without pay) had to sue the government to get back overtime pay. A judge agreed with the workers that the government was in violation of its own labor laws and said the government had to pay double the amount owed due to the violation. 25,000 of those people still have not been paid this court-ordered amount.

    This time, there are already 420,000 workers involved in a similar suit involving overtime they worked starting Dec. 22.

    The government blames automation of the payroll system, but if it is just automation, why is suing the government required?
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    Default Re: Was There Just a Coup in the US?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Ross View Post
    Slight thread-drift: Unless you are simply acknowledging that FiveThirtyEight never suggested it was 100% to 0% in favor of Clinton, you may be misremembering: Through the Autumn months FiveThirtyEight was consistently showing an enormous numerical advantage to Clinton's chances, often in double digits.

    I only remember this because shortly after the election I whined something on Facebook about "why should I ever trust FiveThirtyEight again?" and a friend who knows way more about statistics than I do pointed out that FiveThirtyEight always represented the polling data accurately ...it was the polls that were wrong. (!)
    I am not sure I am. I actually stopped reading FiveThirtyEight with a couple months to go, because I would get heart palpitations from reading all the aggregate poll data and not seeing the outline for a clear win by Clinton. But after a week or so, I forced myself to go back and read the articles even though they contained suggestions of numerical fissures in Clinton’s chances. For me, the absence of 0/100% was an indication that everything could come apart. She should have blown him out of the water and she wasn’t and that was foreboding. FiveThirtyEight, at least in my reading, captured that foreboding.
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    Default Re: Was There Just a Coup in the US?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Ross View Post
    than I do pointed out that FiveThirtyEight always represented the polling data accurately ...it was the polls that were wrong. (!)
    That is my understanding as well. One wonders if they've addressed that problem, or if it's even possible.

    I wasn't answering the phone when I thought pollsters were calling; didn't want to be bothered (though I voted Clinton). I'm guessing I'm not the only one. Did a significant percentage of folks who were crossing over to Trump consciously opt out of poll participation? Where do the phone numbers come from and are all of them available, i.e. are cell phone numbers included? I wonder what sort of systemic data collection defects existed. I also wonder to what degree that might be due to the plethora of communication devices we use now, as opposed to, say, in the 1970s.

    Driving around Tallahassee and there were plenty of Clinton signs. Step outside the city, ride the country roads in the immediate perimeter of the city, never mind farther out, and it was nothing but Trump signs.

    I know one 80-ish lifelong democrat who just couldn't stomach Hillary. She couldn't articulate any policy issues other than to repeat Benghazi, Benghazi, Benghazi, she simply didn't like her. Interestingly nobody seems to be saying Iraq, Iraq Iraq which cost a lot more than three people and was based on nothing but lies.

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    Default Re: Was There Just a Coup in the US?

    Quote Originally Posted by vertical_doug View Post
    When I went through TSA check at JFK on Tuesday, I wished the workers well and told them I hope this ends soon so they have certainty on their pay. They appreciated the sentiment.

    A bigger takeaway may be that so many Gov employees work paycheck to paycheck. It's just another sign of disparity in pay. More importantly, for many jobs, gov probably pays better than private sector, so where does that leave the rest of us.
    I wonder what percentage of the country thinks that the shutdown is mainly affecting 400k mid level bureaucrats in DC rather than the people inspecting your luggage, food, mortgage applications, etc.

    My neighbor (USDA) is furloughed and he says it’s going to get ugly quick when SNAP is impacted, though this first missed paycheck tomorrow will hopefully wake people up to things sooner.

    Left unsaid is the fact that 38m people benefit from SNAP in one way or another. That’s fully one eighth of the country and something we should collectively be embarrassed about.
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    Default Re: Was There Just a Coup in the US?

    Quote Originally Posted by vertical_doug View Post
    When I went through TSA check at JFK on Tuesday, I wished the workers well and told them I hope this ends soon so they have certainty on their pay. They appreciated the sentiment.

    A bigger takeaway may be that so many Gov employees work paycheck to paycheck. It's just another sign of disparity in pay. More importantly, for many jobs, gov probably pays better than private sector, so where does that leave the rest of us.
    I was hiking in Phoenix yesterday. Started talking to a fellow who was heading in to work “hope we get paid sometime”, he is an air traffic controller.

    Perfect, air traffic controllers aren’t getting paid.

    As he said, they get paid pretty well so have the ability to save some money to cover, but said an awful lot of fed employees don’t.

    Of course I knew that controllers were feds, but talking to one who made it clear they weren’t getting paid ......

    Watching planes coming in every few minutes i’d Like to know that the guys in charge of that dance don’t have any other things on their minds.
     

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    Default Re: Was There Just a Coup in the US?

    Quote Originally Posted by j44ke View Post
    I am not sure I am. I actually stopped reading FiveThirtyEight with a couple months to go, because I would get heart palpitations from reading all the aggregate poll data and not seeing the outline for a clear win by Clinton. But after a week or so, I forced myself to go back and read the articles even though they contained suggestions of numerical fissures in Clinton’s chances. For me, the absence of 0/100% was an indication that everything could come apart. She should have blown him out of the water and she wasn’t and that was foreboding. FiveThirtyEight, at least in my reading, captured that foreboding.
    Nate Silver/Fivethirtyeight was pretty consistent about Trump's chances in the lead-up to the election. He basically said that there would have to be a regular poll error in a couple states for Trump to be able to take the electoral college but it very much was a plausible outcome. Turns out that's what happened.
     

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    Default Re: Was There Just a Coup in the US?

    That's what I remember too. I lay awake at night thinking about regular polling errors. Nate is great.

    Looks like they've already started the ball rolling on eminent domain in south Texas:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...=.ec8e0681ccdb
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    Default Re: Was There Just a Coup in the US?

    Quote Originally Posted by TMB View Post
    I was hiking in Phoenix yesterday. Started talking to a fellow who was heading in to work “hope we get paid sometime”, he is an air traffic controller.

    Perfect, air traffic controllers aren’t getting paid.

    As he said, they get paid pretty well so have the ability to save some money to cover, but said an awful lot of fed employees don’t.

    Of course I knew that controllers were feds, but talking to one who made it clear they weren’t getting paid ......

    Watching planes coming in every few minutes i’d Like to know that the guys in charge of that dance don’t have any other things on their minds.
    Maybe it is my french mind speaking but ... if they are almost insured they will never been paid why are they going to work at all ? They should go on strike until the president is forced to come back to his sense.
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    Default Re: Was There Just a Coup in the US?

    Quote Originally Posted by sk_tle View Post
    Maybe it is my french mind speaking but ... if they are almost insured they will never been paid why are they going to work at all ? They should go on strike until the president is forced to come back to his sense.
    This so-called president will never come to his senses. He needs to be removed from office. Now that I've said that.....

    Strikes are rare in the US in modern times, for a variety of reasons. There is a long, difficult process for a labor strike to be legally recognized. They can't just decide to not show up to work. That said, I'm surprised workers who aren't being paid are required to show up at all. No pay? No work. No work? No pay.

    There needs to be a compromise so essential workers get back to work and the so-called president can claim a victory. It may even involve a physical barrier in some places.

    I heard an interview with a Texas congressman yesterday whose party affiliation I never found out. He represents a larger border region and said in his conversations with border police a physical barrier was not a high priority but that in some urban areas it was probably effective. The guy sounded quite reasonable, unlike the more visible 'leaders' of this country.
    Last edited by Saab2000; 4 Days Ago at 07:28 AM.
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    Default Re: Was There Just a Coup in the US?

    Quote Originally Posted by sk_tle View Post
    Maybe it is my french mind speaking but ... if they are almost insured they will never been paid why are they going to work at all ? They should go on strike until the president is forced to come back to his sense.
    I believe the workers will get back pay. If they won't get back pay, I don't think they will show up.

    Yesterday the President tweeted he was cancelling his Davos trip. Since Davos doesn't begin until January 22, I think this shows his intention of either not solving this shutdown before month end or invoking a National Emergency so he guarantees himself lots of busy work with legal challenges.

    Neither of which is good outcome.
     

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    Default Re: Was There Just a Coup in the US?

    Quote Originally Posted by vertical_doug View Post
    I believe the workers will get back pay. If they won't get back pay, I don't think they will show up.

    Yesterday the President tweeted he was cancelling his Davos trip. Since Davos doesn't begin until January 22, I think this shows his intention of either not solving this shutdown before month end or invoking a National Emergency so he guarantees himself lots of busy work with legal challenges.

    Neither of which is good outcome.
    I think once the ripple effect of this becomes big enough it will get resolved one way or another. People will start being evicted from their homes when they can't pay their rent/mortgages and other parts of the economy will suffer as well. Then it gets figured out because even the GOP will begin feeling the heat and there will be cracks in party unity.
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    Default Re: Was There Just a Coup in the US?

    By Jill Abramson, who's vastly more constructive than our president: Trump is using the government as a bargaining chip – like a dictator would | Robert Reich | Opinion | The Guardian

    Here's the intro:

    “I have the absolute right to do national emergency if I want,” Donald Trump told reporters on Wednesday.

    The wonderful thing about Trump’s presidency (I never thought I’d begin a sentence this way), is he brings us back to basics. The basic difference between a democracy and a dictatorship comes down to means and ends.

    Democracy is about means, not ends. If we all agreed on the ends (such as whether to build a wall along the Mexican border) there’d be no need for democracy.

    But of course we don’t agree, which is why the means by which we resolve our differences are so important. Those means include a constitution, a system of government based on the rule of law, and an independent judiciary.

    A dictatorship, by contrast, is only about ends. Those ends are the goals of the dictator – at a minimum, preserving and accumulating personal power. To achieve those ends, a dictator will use any means necessary.

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    Default Re: Was There Just a Coup in the US?

    And as to mental fitness...I'm no expert but I'm not utterly clueless either.

    Metaphorically I'm willing to agree that the "quack" is dim, the outline that I can see (of the creature) is distant and the webbed footprints I saw over there a while ago coulda come from something else, but I think I see a duck.

    There are people I see, hear and read that have me thinking they're pretty sharp/educated/knowledgeable/constructive/teambuilder/honorable/well meaning/emotionally healthy/etc. There are others that leave me thinking the inverse and some, like most of us, that tick boxes on both sides of the coin; hopefully more on the former side than the latter. From my perspective Trump doesn't tick any on the first side; I mean, I just don't go away thinking wow, that's a sharp guy who's done his homework on issue XYZ, knows the data and he seriously values the well being of the population. I see him lying, making outrageous claims, ignoring inconvenient data, and doing things that I wouldn't tolerate in a friend. No, he's solidly anchored on the inverse side and I think it's quantifiable. There is plenty of this sort of analysis out there but I thought this one sounded like a pretty reasonable treatment. He has zero business being the President of the USA.

    In that vein: Trump Is Mentally Unwell — and Everyone Around Him Knows It

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    Default Re: Was There Just a Coup in the US?

    A sad story in WaPo- what's sad is the fact that these have to happen.

    Food Bank to Host Pop-up Markets for D.C.-area Federal Workers, Contractors Affected By the Shutdown
    2019-01-11 15:11:10.431 GMT

    By Dana Hedgpeth

    (Washington Post) -- Five pop-up markets for federal workers and contractors
    affected by the partial government shutdown will be held Saturday in the D.C.
    area by the Capital Area Food Bank.

    Produce and other food items will be available for up to 250 people at each of
    the sites from 9 a.m. to noon. Recipients must show proper identification.

    The pop-ups will be at the following Giant supermarket locations:

    ●1050 Brentwood Rd. in the District.

    ●6800 Richmond Hwy. in Alexandria.

    ●10480 Campus Way South in Largo, Md.

    ●7074 Allentown Rd. in Camp Springs, Md.

    ●12051 Rockville Pike in Rockville.

    Nationwide, about 800,000 federal workers, both furloughed and working without
    pay, have been affected by shutdown, which began Dec. 22. On Friday, those
    workers received pay stubs with $0 net pay statements.

    Several D.C.-area groups and workers' unions have been organizing food drives
    and collecting financial aid for those in need. Local government agencies are
    also offering assistance, and several local utilities are providing grace
    periods and other assistance to cover missed payments.

    dana.hedgpeth@washpost.com
     

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    Default Re: Was There Just a Coup in the US?

    Quote Originally Posted by sk_tle View Post
    Maybe it is my french mind speaking but ... if they are almost insured they will never been paid why are they going to work at all ? They should go on strike until the president is forced to come back to his sense.
    In 1981, the air traffic controllers' union did go on strike, and President Reagan fired all 11,000 of them. And banned them for life from working for the government.

    That move is still lauded by many.

    TH
     

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    Default Re: Was There Just a Coup in the US?

    Quote Originally Posted by thollandpe View Post
    In 1981, the air traffic controllers' union did go on strike, and President Reagan fired all 11,000 of them. And banned them for life from working for the government.

    That move is still lauded by many.

    TH
    And reviled by an equal number of supporters of union labor.
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    Default Re: Was There Just a Coup in the US?

    Great talk folks. I really appreciate that the community can share opinions and go back and forth like this.

    Serious question: was there ever a similar thread with as much back and forth to discuss any other political issue before 2016?
    Andy

    RAI Reporter: "Did you have it in mind to go for the win today?"
    Eddy Merckx: "Why do you ask me that? Why do you think I'm here? To watch the others win?"

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    Default Re: Was There Just a Coup in the US?

    So wall funding from disaster relief funds - White House Considers Using Storm Aid Funds as a Way to Pay for the Border Wall - The New York Times

    And farmers are getting double whacked, first by sanctions, then by shut government that can't disburse sanction relief funds, among other forms of agricultural support: Farm Country Stood by Trump. But the Shutdown Is Pushing It to Breaking Point. - The New York Times
    Last edited by j44ke; 4 Days Ago at 01:09 PM.
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