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Thread: Middle east.

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    Default Middle east.

    Was it a wise move to adopt Israel´s selected killings? The iranians have been feeding their proxies like Hbollah w/ guns and assist for decades. Obama played cautious although some say he failed... but Donald is setting fire to gasoline. There is no way to turn back after this and even if there was the diplomatic ability was never there. Good luck to all of us.
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    Default Re: Middle east.

    I remembered this article from 2013.

    It's hard for me to imagine how this will play out. Iran will act out for sure but it could be anywhere and the target will be soft and not connected directly to this issue (I wager). A bomb in a restaurant frequented by tourists or a missile into a passenger airplane.

    I wish we had James Baker, Madeline Albright, or Colin Powell in place.

    Praying for peace.
     

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    Default Re: Middle east.

    There is no good war. That's all I got.

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    Default Re: Middle east.

    Quote Originally Posted by DJB View Post
    I remembered this article from 2013.

    It's hard for me to imagine how this will play out. Iran will act out for sure but it could be anywhere and the target will be soft and not connected directly to this issue (I wager). A bomb in a restaurant frequented by tourists or a missile into a passenger airplane.

    I wish we had James Baker, Madeline Albright, or Colin Powell in place.

    Praying for peace.
    "The good will didn’t last. In January, 2002, Crocker, who was by then the deputy chief of the American Embassy in Kabul, was awakened one night by aides, who told him that President George W. Bush, in his State of the Union Address, had named Iran as part of an “Axis of Evil.” Like many senior diplomats, Crocker was caught off guard. He saw the negotiator the next day at the U.N. compound in Kabul, and he was furious. “You completely damaged me,” Crocker recalled him saying. “Suleimani is in a tearing rage. He feels compromised.” The negotiator told Crocker that, at great political risk, Suleimani had been contemplating a complete reëvaluation of the United States, saying, “Maybe it’s time to rethink our relationship with the Americans.” The Axis of Evil speech brought the meetings to an end. Reformers inside the government, who had advocated a rapprochement with the United States, were put on the defensive. Recalling that time, Crocker shook his head. “We were just that close,” he said. “One word in one speech changed history.” "

    From the above article- We cooperated with Iran after the 9/11 attacks to strike at the Taliban (The enemy of my enemy...)
     

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    Default Re: Middle east.

    Probably just shut down the internet for the US banking system. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard, besides having almost unlimited capital from asset seizures, have a top level cyber assault team.
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    Default Re: Middle east.

    Quote Originally Posted by j44ke View Post
    Probably just shut down the internet for the US banking system. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard, besides having almost unlimited capital from asset seizures, have a top level cyber assault team.
    I wonder if shutting down the entire US grid for ... oh, I don't know, 10 minutes or so would get our attention.
     

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    Default Re: Middle east.

    To anyone contemplating escalation(s) that might make the American public more aware of the threats posed by hostile foreign actors....why is that good?

    Diplomacy is long, drawn out, hard fought for over sometimes seemingly insignificant actions and words. That can take years or decades or never, in the meantime there is...diplomacy.

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    Default Re: Middle east.

    Quote Originally Posted by DJB View Post
    I remembered this article from 2013.

    It's hard for me to imagine how this will play out. Iran will act out for sure but it could be anywhere and the target will be soft and not connected directly to this issue (I wager). A bomb in a restaurant frequented by tourists or a missile into a passenger airplane.

    I wish we had James Baker, Madeline Albright, or Colin Powell in place.

    Praying for peace.
    Excellent article. I have zero sympathy for Suleimani or the revolutionary guard but i can´t see the strategy in this US hit.
    I came here for the socks.

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    Default Re: Middle east.

    Quote Originally Posted by Too Tall View Post
    To anyone contemplating escalation(s) that might make the American public more aware of the threats posed by hostile foreign actors....why is that good?

    Diplomacy is long, drawn out, hard fought for over sometimes seemingly insignificant actions and words. That can take years or decades or never, in the meantime there is...diplomacy.
    Agree. Absolutely. And when it comes to the middle east you know there are no good guys to side w/. Assad or AQ in Syria? Saddam or Iranian ops in Iraq?
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    Default Re: Middle east.

    It's as bad and stupid as the administration's foreign policy has been bad and stupid. It unifies the various factions within the Iranian government rather than continuing to drive a wedge between the moderates and the hardliners. Iran has zero incentive to come to talks for anything -- the US has bailed on one hard-fought agreement that was working for both sides, and now has killed the equivalent of their General Patton.

    Yeah, he was a bad dude, but other political actors across the Middle East with reason to hate this guy for decades have looked at the calculus of killing him and said "Nope, not worth it."

    The galling hypocrisy and stupidity of Sec Pompeo to try to argue the world was a safer place with this guy dead, then his very same State Department is telling every American to leave Iraq immediately, to not come to the embassy, and if they can't get out via the airport to leave via land transit. To where? Syria? It's so much safer we now have to send an additional 3,000 troops to the Middle East?

    At least with the Iraq War Powell and the administration had the stones to tell very specific, public lies to drag us into a nonsense war. This administration can't even be bothered to show some terrible aluminum tubes or yellowcake.

    Ship 'em all off to the Hague for war crimes tribunals as far as I'm concerned.
     

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    Default Re: Middle east.

    Quote Originally Posted by theflashunc View Post
    It's as bad and stupid as the administration's foreign policy has been bad and stupid. It unifies the various factions within the Iranian government rather than continuing to drive a wedge between the moderates and the hardliners. Iran has zero incentive to come to talks for anything -- the US has bailed on one hard-fought agreement that was working for both sides, and now has killed the equivalent of their General Patton.

    Yeah, he was a bad dude, but other political actors across the Middle East with reason to hate this guy for decades have looked at the calculus of killing him and said "Nope, not worth it."

    The galling hypocrisy and stupidity of Sec Pompeo to try to argue the world was a safer place with this guy dead, then his very same State Department is telling every American to leave Iraq immediately, to not come to the embassy, and if they can't get out via the airport to leave via land transit. To where? Syria? It's so much safer we now have to send an additional 3,000 troops to the Middle East?

    At least with the Iraq War Powell and the administration had the stones to tell very specific, public lies to drag us into a nonsense war. This administration can't even be bothered to show some terrible aluminum tubes or yellowcake.

    Ship 'em all off to the Hague for war crimes tribunals as far as I'm concerned.
    And i can´t see any strategy going on. Do they even hope to take Iraq away from Iranian influence w/ this? Suleimani wasn´t a mad dog on the loose you need to put down. He was a strategist who dealt w/ the US many times. It was someone to talk to ...negotiate... not to kill. Unless a lot is not being said it looks inconsequential.
    I came here for the socks.

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    Default Re: Middle east.

    DJT just got some points with some Iranian factions, and probably the main line Iranian military.
    The Revolutionary Guard is not loved by the main military, and which political factions just got a
    boost or a kick down in rank? Hopefully the CIA can figure out.

    Game of Mullahs & Militaries season 41
     

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    Default Re: Middle east.

    Quote Originally Posted by theflashunc View Post
    ... It unifies the various factions within the Iranian government rather than continuing to drive a wedge...
    Sad that he can unify international enemies but domestically he seems (from afar- what would I know?) to be sticking with the wedge.

    Whatever, the gold price is not agreeing that the world is now a safer place.
     

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    Default Re: Middle east.

    I mostly hate how every foreign policy move is done alone. We needed to do something about China, and had an opportunity to rally support and apply multi-lateral pressure. Same thing goes for Korea and Iran. We applied tarrifs against Canada and Brazil? What the hell? We just take on fights like a schoolyard bully. We are gonna get a bloody nose soon.
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    Default Re: Middle east.

    Quote Originally Posted by mjbabcock View Post
    I mostly hate how every foreign policy move is done alone. We needed to do something about China, and had an opportunity to rally support and apply multi-lateral pressure. Same thing goes for Korea and Iran. We applied tarrifs against Canada and Brazil? What the hell? We just take on fights like a schoolyard bully. We are gonna get a bloody nose soon.
    It’s like there is a policy of not having a policy
     

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    Default Re: Middle east.

    Quote Originally Posted by colker View Post
    Obama played cautious although some say he failed...
    Under Obama there were some 563 killings by drones (mostly in Pakistan, Somalia and Yemen.) I wouldn't call it “cautious”.
    He did enact a more covert policy re Iran. There was this piece by Ronen Bergman last September: The Secret History of the Push to Strike Iran - The New York Times


    Quote Originally Posted by theflashunc View Post
    Ship 'em all off to the Hague for war crimes tribunals as far as I'm concerned.
    The US withdraw its signature on the Rome Statute, refusing to be a member of the ICC, for a reason.

    Quote Originally Posted by Scott G. View Post
    DJT just got some points with some Iranian factions, and probably the main line Iranian military.
    The Revolutionary Guard is not loved by the main military, and which political factions just got a
    boost or a kick down in rank? Hopefully the CIA can figure out.
    If there's an organization I trust to fuck up every regime-toppling, is the CIA. IDK if they f*ck up more these days, or if those are just more public.
     

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    Default Re: Middle east.

    Quote Originally Posted by snotrockets View Post

    If there's an organization I trust to fuck up every regime-toppling, is the CIA. IDK if they f*ck up more these days, or if those are just more public.
    Hard to see how they could improve on the fucked-up-ness of Kermit Roosevelt's efforts in 1953. Widely viewed as the origin of this mess.

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    Default Re: Middle east.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Kelly View Post
    Hard to see how they could improve on the fucked-up-ness of Kermit Roosevelt's efforts in 1953. Widely viewed as the origin of this mess.
    No one would ever think in the 50s we would see in 2020 religion playing the cards. It does not get any more stupid. Even the cold war seems like an illuminated dream compared to sunni x shiite, christian x atheist, jewish x muslim... Jesus had a nice project but the job he left unfinished went wrong.
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    Default Re: Middle east.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Kelly View Post
    Hard to see how they could improve on the fucked-up-ness of Kermit Roosevelt's efforts in 1953. Widely viewed as the origin of this mess.
    Invading Iraq and hoping for a western democracy there wins the competition. Imagine the russians reading that copy... The iranians just bought more ammo.
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    Default Re: Middle east.

    Quote Originally Posted by colker View Post
    No one would ever think in the 50s we would see in 2020 religion playing the cards. It does not get any more stupid. Even the cold war seems like an illuminated dream compared to sunni x shiite, christian x atheist, jewish x muslim... Jesus had a nice project but the job he left unfinished went wrong.
    This has nothing to do with religion. Religion is just an excuse and the weapon/tool.
    Last edited by sk_tle; 01-05-2020 at 08:15 AM.
    --
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