"zenith of [cassettes]"?

[Double Clutch]

In a shocking fit of honesty, ZF transmissions admitted that adding gears is probably driven more by marketing, than by efficiency. ZF CEO: 9 Speeds Is Enough | The Truth About Cars

My question is: Are 11 speed cassettes the reasonable limit for bicycles?

This week, a customer asked me when he was going to have to upgrade his hubs again, if he went to DA9000, and I had to pause. If I recall correctly, Shimano has a patent for a 14 speed chain, but they dragged their feet on going to 11 speeds. Do any of the engineers, math-inclined, or well-connected industry folk have a prediction?

[steve garro]

In a shocking fit of honesty, ZF transmissions admitted that adding gears is probably driven more by marketing, than by efficiency. ZF CEO: 9 Speeds Is Enough | The Truth About Cars

My question is: Are 11 speed cassettes the reasonable limit for bicycles?

This week, a customer asked me when he was going to have to upgrade his hubs again, if he went to DA9000, and I had to pause. If I recall correctly, Shimano has a patent for a 14 speed chain, but they dragged their feet on going to 11 speeds. Do any of the engineers, math-inclined, or well-connected industry folk have a prediction?

Hub widths will have to increase - especially with the disc rotor on the left.
- Garro.

[Eric Estlund]

Forced obsolescence

[Chance Legstrong]

after PDM, everything else was just noise.

pdm_cassete2.jpg

[thollandpe]

My question is: Are 11 speed cassettes the reasonable limit for bicycles?

I hope it stops, no mas. Another analogy is cable TV, now we have over 1000 channels but still watch only one at time. And the experience may not be any better than when we had 3 to choose from.

Everybody thinks adding another cog would be fine, but it's not just diminishing returns but real compromises that are made every time another cog joins the stack out back.

There are bigger fish to fry. Too few gears doesn't make my list of top 20 things affecting the speed, safety, efficiency or enjoyment of my riding.

PS I also think a human powerband is broader than an internal combustion engine's so nine is enough.

[EddieBirdsell]

If I recall correctly, Shimano has a patent for a 14 speed chain, but they dragged their feet on going to 11 speeds.

As long as demand remains, why would any company release an updated product line until they've saturated the market with the current generation? It's no different than with any other market.

[steve garro]

11 speeds adds up to 10 wrong choices.
Long time one speeder here.
- Garro.

[steve garro]

As long as demand remains, why would any company release an updated product line until they've saturated the market with the current generation? It's no different than with any other market.

No way, Man - today's whiskers are so tough you need five blades to shave - those old guys who shaved with a piece of steel sharpened on a strap were pussies.
(JK)
- Garro.

[Gradient]

Do any of the engineers, math-inclined, or well-connected industry folk have a prediction?

I have none of these qualifications but I see a Holiday Inn Express up the road. As a consumer, more speeds make for less need for multiple front chainrings. I see a lot of people using 1x9, 1x10 and 2 ring compacts. While the back end may be reaching it's maximum tolerances, the front end is getting simpler with less duplication of gear inches. Do the industry folks see the front triple drivetrains slowing?

[Double Clutch]

Do the industry folks see the front triple drivetrains slowing?

Thank god, yes.

[Michael Roy]

11 is the zenith

Spinal Tap - These Go To 11 - YouTube

[nbrewste]

...a customer asked me when he was going to have to upgrade his hubs again, if he went to DA9000...

This seems only to be an issue for those who require the "latest and greatest."

I assume a DA 9000 investment, based on the quality of Shimano's components, will be quite durable. And back-stocks of DA 9000 small parts and individual components will be around for many years to come.

Point is, he shouldn't have to upgrade his hubs again.

[Double Clutch]

Point is, he shouldn't have to upgrade his hubs again.

Ok, agreed, but you're willfully ignoring the point of the question. Let's just assume that the customer in question has a need or desire to keep current with the top level groups.

[Bobqzz]

I'd like to see 8 speeds using 9 speed spacing on a 7 speed width freehub.

[GrayJay]

I'd like to see 8 speeds using 9 speed spacing on a 7 speed width freehub.

8 of 9 on 7 works fine, just remove one of the cogs from a 9 speed casette. Shedon has more info toward bottom of page;
Shimano Cassettes & Freehubs


If you use a narrow 7-speed casette body on a hub with axel spaced out to 130mm OLD, this can yield a rear wheel with the nearly symetrical spoke tension. Spoke life is greatly improved, wheels stay true longer and/or you can utilize lighter weight rims than are needed for overly-dished modern drivetrains without as much danger of rim cracking and pulling the drive side nipples through the rim.

[Bobqzz]

8 of 9 on 7 works fine, just remove one of the cogs from a 9 speed casette. Shedon has more info;
Shimano Cassettes & Freehubs


If you use a narrow 7-speed casette body on a hub with axel spaced out to 130mm OLD, this can yield a rear wheel with the nearly symetrical spoke tension. Spoke life is greatly improved, wheels stay true longer and/or you can utilize lighter weight rims than are needed for overly-dished modern drivetrains without as much danger of rim cracking and pulling the drive side nipples through the rim.

Yes, precisely why I'd like to see the industry adopt it as the default configuration.

[WMdeR]

Yes, precisely why I'd like to see the industry adopt it as the default configuration.

Well, what you'll get is: 145OLN spacing. Gotta make room for the disc brakes and 12v cassette. Look for it on the next product cycle (5 years). In the meantime, you'll have to make do with 135mm OLN on the road with 11s and a disc brake.

cheers,

Will
William M. deRosset
Fort Collins, CO

[wcu]

Well, what you'll get is: 145OLN spacing. Gotta make room for the disc brakes and 12v cassette. Look for it on the next product cycle (5 years). In the meantime, you'll have to make do with 135mm OLN on the road with 11s and a disc brake.

cheers,

Will
William M. deRosset
Fort Collins, CO

When pigs fly.....9 is as far as I'll take it.(with O/C rear rim)

[devlin]

I was thinking this morning of building the second frame with a 135OLN rear for 10spd but the 5mm was added to teh drive side so in effect assymetric. My reasoning being that is would help spoke tension and when I'm racing I'm using the top 2/3 of the cassette so thinking chain line would be better as well even allowing the no go area of big-big. The 9spd cassette less a cog on the 7spd hub sounds even better again.

Generally I think 10 was enough. It allowed the spread we wanted for racing with one tooth jumps just about the whole way. This is where the industry is kind of stuck in that racing sells the product to the majority of punters. In turn the punters have come to expect and demand something new every year so they can win teh arms race at the coffee shop. If they could change the perceptions of the punter away from racing equipment then we'd still have plenty of 9spd system being refined by teh manufacturers. IMO.

[nbrewste]

Ok, agreed, but you're willfully ignoring the point of the question. Let's just assume that the customer in question has a need or desire to keep current with the top level groups.

I'd also respond that if he needed to, or had a strong enough desire to (don't we all?), keep with a top-level group then he should be prepared to expect cutting-edge innovation. This innovation cannot always be expected to conform to a set of widely adopted industry standards (what truly innovative invention does?), but instead forge its own.