Lance vs The Field

[Saab2000]

Who do you like? Place your bets!

[Chance Legstrong]

I took LA

not a hater, not a lover...just like the mojo and swagger.

[Saab2000]

I also take Lance.

He owned this race for 7 years and could have kept owning it. Contador is the closest guy to showing cycling dominance since Lance left the scene but Lance was more dominant at the Tour than just about anyone in modern cycling except Eddy Merckx and Bernard Hinault.

You never know, but I take Lance for the win. Decisively.

[matthew]

I might have to eat my words (I said earlier that LA wasn't there to win the TdF, he was there to promote LS). But I'm still noodling out AC's role in the race, so I'm not quite ready to concede ;-)

Could AC possibly be convinced to support LA for total leadership in the future? Or is this Lemond/Hinault? Loving all of the possibilities.

In fact, what I'd love most is for someone totally new to win decisively. Here's to dreaming.

[shorelocal]

I voted "the field". Just don't think he can pull it off this time.

[jimp1234]

I've always liked Lance's chutzpah, but I'm betting against him in this year's TDF, and mainly for two personal (and probably incorrect) reasons. One, he looks heavy to me. Now, don't get me wrong I'd love to have his 5 - 7% body fat bod, but he's not as someone put it, "runway model thin" like he was during his prime. Secondly, in a lot of the photos, and video coverage during this season, even up to the weekend's Nevada City race, he looks like he's "stressed", face drawn, mouth open, etc. In all of the Tour years, even when he was off form like in 2003, he always had the Lance poker face. As I said, subjective but I'm picking Alberto, or maybe a dark horse like Cadel, Sastre or Menchov for this year's tour.

[mainemike]

I've always liked Lance's chutzpah, but I'm betting against him in this year's TDF, and mainly for two personal (and probably incorrect) reasons. One, he looks heavy to me. Now, don't get me wrong I'd love to have his 5 - 7% body fat bod, but he's not as someone put it, "runway model thin" like he was during his prime. Secondly, in a lot of the photos, and video coverage during this season, even up to the weekend's Nevada City race, he looks like he's "stressed", face drawn, mouth open, etc. In all of the Tour years, even when he was off form like in 2003, he always had the Lance poker face. As I said, subjective but I'm picking Alberto, or maybe a dark horse like Cadel, Sastre or Menchov for this year's tour.

i think i read somewhere that he is 2 or so lbs lighter than he was back in the days of dominance? anyone?

[lavi]

It's true about Lance's face. I haven't been impressed with the way he's been looking on the bike. Maybe it's just that he's older now.

Not too much longer to wait and see.

I think Andy Schleck may have some surprises up his sleeve. He cannot TT though.

[giordana93]

I think LA will be competitive, and on the right course maybe even a favorite, but with the penultimate stage being to the top of ventoux, I've gotta go with Alberto, unless someone "accidentally" gives him a bad bottle or gets him to bonk again like in Paris-Nice.

[1centaur]

I took the non-Lance route, but only because there are so many ways that life, and sports, can surprise you, so in an option-theory sense I bet the way a hedge fund would.

If we get down to sports analysis though, you would lay odds on strong team, good DS tactics and good combo TT/climber. Assuming Lance can work some alpha male mojo on 'Berto, which rider has the whole package enough to be credible - team/DS/TT/climb? Give Lance the team and he's a credible pick.

[jerk]

i have it on good (non-trek/astana propoganda) that lance is testing off the charts right now in every category. he is stronger, fitter and leaner than he has ever been. barring accident or injury, he will dominate this tour.

[GrantM]

he is stronger, fitter and leaner than he has ever been..

just like you and me, Craig!

I'm 41, and in my little world, i am stronger, recover better, and am smarter
than I was at 21 or 31. Not to say that the life of a pro wouldn't still kill me,
because it would... but Lance isn't old.

-g

[54ny77]

i guess he was tired of being tired. :biggrin:

i have it on good (non-trek/astana propoganda) that lance is testing off the charts right now in every category. he is stronger, fitter and leaner than he has ever been. barring accident or injury, he will dominate this tour.

[Ray]

i have it on good (non-trek/astana propoganda) that lance is testing off the charts right now in every category. he is stronger, fitter and leaner than he has ever been. barring accident or injury, he will dominate this tour.

This sounds like madness to me, but I thought the Jerk was crazy when he insisted Sastre would win last year. So I'll defer to jerk's judgement despite my impulse not to. Still hard to imagine after how spent he looked in the Giro and given his age, taste of the easy life, and time away. But if he pulls it out, I'll get a certain buzz out of it in the name of old guys everywhere, despite my personal distaste for the guy. But the numbers rarely lie and if Jerk's sources are right, it should be quite a spectacle. But it still sounds like madness to me.

-Ray

[Too Tall]

I'd a freak show and one of the greatest sporting events on planet earth I won't miss it. Lance will win two stages is my guess.

It's going to be epic.

[54ny77]

various sports books are ~6:1 armstrong...

el conquistador is in the 2:1 range.

i kinda like cavendish at 500:1....:hahaha:

I'd a freak show and one of the greatest sporting events on planet earth I won't miss it. Lance will win two stages is my guess.

It's going to be epic.

[SteveP]

i thk lance will win
and i thk he will test positive.

[1centaur]

he is stronger, fitter and leaner than he has ever been.

Yeah but, Ahnold in the "Pumping Iron" days would get those adjectives. Lance is showing amazing muscle definition and mass vs. the cyclists around him, but does he have 6 more pounds of muscle on him than he did? You commented on Kloden's leanness, which is the classic tell of cycling fitness. If Lance wins with this new body, we'll have to bear a whole new round of Carmichael books about the wonders of doing 10 sets of 10 squat jumps onto a 4 ft high platform in your garage while holding a 50lb dumbbell in each hand.

[jerk]

as of yesterday he is 11 pounds lighter than he was when he started the giro. trust the jerk on this one, this is for real.

[e-RICHIE]

as of yesterday he is 11 pounds lighter than he was when he started the giro. trust the jerk on this one, this is for real.

wow i didn't realize they weighed so much atmo.